This Bounce Should Last for More Than One Day. But where it stops? Anyone has any idea?
No Fakeout, A bounce Is Unavoidable
Started by
redfoliage2
, Jul 30 2007 10:53 AM
7 replies to this topic
#2
rkd80
-
- Traders-Talk User
- 2,385 posts
Member
Posted 30 July 2007 - 10:57 AM
This Bounce Should Last for More Than One Day. But where it stops? Anyone has any idea?
I dont know if its possible to measure the power of the bounce. Certain tools are making this bounce an inevitable truth, but these very same tools have shows bounces that previously lasted anywhere from 3 days to months! Things like the total of highs versus total nyse issues, or $nyad, etc.
This could be a major bottom (unlikely) or a bounce to old highs or even a bounce that would retrace 80% and then take out the lows again. Wish spotting tops was as easy as spotting bottoms.
“be right and sit tight”
#3
humble1
-
- Traders-Talk User
- 5,959 posts
Member
Posted 30 July 2007 - 11:01 AM
i disagree. and this churn here is downright ugly. i say we close below that critical 1450 area, soon, without any chance for a decent bounce that will let the fish out of the trap.
the tide has changed BIG TIME. and it is more obvious than i have ever seen it.
#4
beta
-
- TT Patron+
- 4,093 posts
lasergirl
Posted 30 July 2007 - 11:06 AM
This Bounce Should Last for More Than One Day. But where it stops? Anyone has any idea?
IF today's LOD holds, think we hit first resistance at SPX 1495, then up to SPX 1525.
Im back out flat for now. Might have one more low to go.
"Daytrading -- An Extreme Sport !"
#5
Specul8
-
- Traders-Talk User
- 47 posts
Member
Posted 30 July 2007 - 11:29 AM
This Bounce Should Last for More Than One Day. But where it stops? Anyone has any idea?
IF today's LOD holds, think we hit first resistance at SPX 1495, then up to SPX 1525.
Im back out flat for now. Might have one more low to go.
Indeed, not acting especially resiliant after double bottom just put in the SPX (1454.17 @ 9:42 and 1454.13 @ 11:44).
#6
Specul8
-
- Traders-Talk User
- 47 posts
Member
Posted 30 July 2007 - 12:06 PM
This Bounce Should Last for More Than One Day. But where it stops? Anyone has any idea?
IF today's LOD holds, think we hit first resistance at SPX 1495, then up to SPX 1525.
Im back out flat for now. Might have one more low to go.
Indeed, not acting especially resiliant after double bottom just put in the SPX (1454.17 @ 9:42 and 1454.13 @ 11:44).
I will amend that statement to say it is acting especially resiliant and expect that the double bottom just put in will hold for the day.
#7
beta
-
- TT Patron+
- 4,093 posts
lasergirl
Posted 30 July 2007 - 01:01 PM
Nice job, Spec8 ! -- gold/commodities are bouncing strongly here, rally may go into tomorrow --
(if today's LOD holds, would not be surprised to see a quick retest tomorrow am w/ higher low to confirm today's low)
"Daytrading -- An Extreme Sport !"
#8
qqqqtrdr
-
- Traders-Talk User
- 3,221 posts
Member
Posted 30 July 2007 - 02:44 PM
There are ways to measure how far the bounce must go. ( i.e. short term indicators get into the neutral territory, daily bollinger bands to the ( 20, -.75 ) which can be used as a minimum measure. The the minimums are met while medium term indicators RSI, 10-day TRIN become overbought you can come up with a good probability of a short term top. However, the indicators rarely align themselves to make a certain determination of a top. From a bottom we should have 3 waves up, down, up where 3 is just as long as 1 to also play the top. On the daily chart we are still in one ( if you believe a bottom has been met ).
Again this does not pick a top but does pick when a top is plausible. I would recommend NASDAQ McClellan must be at -50 and NYSE McClellan must go to -100 before a renewed sell-off could occure.
Barry
