27 replies to this topic

[dharma]

i am counting the march impulse as 1 of 3 and this last impulse as 1 of 3of 3. which means the big enchilada is next!!!!! dharma

[senorBS]

i am counting the march impulse as 1 of 3 and this last impulse as 1 of 3of 3.
which means the big enchilada is next!!!!! dharma

Problem is that in Senor's opinion a wave two of three in the XAU should not retrace back to 135-137. Anything is possible but if we pulled back that much Senor would be MUY wary of buying at that 135-137 level.

BS is beautiful

Senor

[dharma]

ahhhhhhhhhh, this is what makes a market. no grande bs. dharma

[senorBS]

i am counting the march impulse as 1 of 3 and this last impulse as 1 of 3of 3.
which means the big enchilada is next!!!!! dharma

Problem is that in Senor's opinion a wave two of three in the XAU should not retrace back to 135-137. Anything is possible but if we pulled back that much Senor would be MUY wary of buying at that 135-137 level.

BS is beautiful

Senor

Si, it is. I will not buy 135-137 if we get there, I will after a muy importante rally from that level. Looks like upside correction probably ended today, down we go?

BSing away

Senor

[gvc]

There have been several months where the XAU has either made a high or low for a month at the beginning or end of that month. It obviously doesn't always happens, but enough to give a decent amount of trading weight to what happens at the beginnings and ends of any month. If your a bull you should hope for a weak start to Aug ..mabey a 2 or 3 day drop and then off to the races for the rest of the month . Of course.. if we rally into the end of this week or early next week then it may be a good shorting opportunity. But , in any case, volatility will probably stick around for the next several months.

[flyers&divers]

I have no position but it seems to me that PM's are holding up surprisingly well considering the general climate. F&D

[Jnavin]

Looks like a big mess to me, although the chart from 2000 still is mighty bullish IMO. Might be a complex double-three or triple-three, and completing this month's downmove can be counted as the 11th wave from the 2006 high, i.e. one big correction.

But, who knows? Sure is meandering.


Doug

Here's the classic Elliott Wave count: the June 06 low is the A in the first part of a large A-B-C-D-E triangle.
Then, the late February 07 high begins a series of 1-2's with a series of 3's just ahead. Look out.

Not investment advice.

[senorBS]

Looks like a big mess to me, although the chart from 2000 still is mighty bullish IMO. Might be a complex double-three or triple-three, and completing this month's downmove can be counted as the 11th wave from the 2006 high, i.e. one big correction.

But, who knows? Sure is meandering.


Doug

Here's the classic Elliott Wave count: the June 06 low is the A in the first part of a large A-B-C-D-E triangle.
Then, the late February 07 high begins a series of 1-2's with a series of 3's just ahead. Look out.

Not investment advice.

Amigo, June low could be A, last weeks high B, and now we do C south of border to below A low. Does not have to happen but is possible (40% chance?). Senor watching with nice gains and sipping a margarita as he posts.

NO BS

Senor

[beta]

Senor confused here and just exited all longs in the first 5 minutes of trading. Senor wants to watch for a while.

PURE BS

Senor

Bravo, El Senor -- muy muy bravo !!


[insert mucho tossed roses]

Edited by beta, 01 August 2007 - 12:07 AM.

[SilentOne]

Jnavin,

Here's the classic Elliott Wave count: the June 06 low is the A in the first part of a large A-B-C-D-E triangle.
Then, the late February 07 high begins a series of 1-2's with a series of 3's just ahead. Look out.

If we had completed a triangle as you propose, then price should have rocketed out of that triangle and broke to new highs. With the failure last week, I could only conclude that the breakout was false and that we are still correcting off the May '06 high. See my posts last week commenting on the hourly chart.

HUI hourly ewave comment.

So if we have not finished the large corrective pattern, then a "C" wave decline is still likely ahead. Thus senor's caution and mine. Ewave is not perfect nor are we, but it can flash warnings at times. We'll see.

cheers,

john

Edited by SilentOne, 01 August 2007 - 03:17 AM.