Lets see how the market will react tomorrow after AHM announced late today that tomorrow is closing down and all the people are fired. LEND also announced today that is heading that way.
I am wondering if today's late rally was only fake and tomorrow we head south to new levels. If not then I guess we have seen the bottom for at least next FOMC on Tuesday.
Old News But......
Started by
nicolasillo
, Aug 02 2007 04:48 PM
13 replies to this topic
#1
nicolasillo
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#2
nicolasillo
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Posted 02 August 2007 - 05:06 PM
Lets see how the market will react tomorrow after AHM announced late today that tomorrow is closing down and all the people are fired. LEND also announced today that is heading that way.
I am wondering if today's late rally was only fake and tomorrow we head south to new levels. If not then I guess we have seen the bottom for at least next FOMC on Tuesday.
on the other hand we may have this as well tomorrow
http://biz.yahoo.com...berus.html?.v=1
#3
arbman
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Posted 02 August 2007 - 05:22 PM
Honestly, there is no upside for both Chrysler and JPM on this deal, it is a loosing deal even if it goes into the hands of the private equity. It will never get sold to the public again, the public will not buy these IPOs, of course unless the money comes from Chinese. I see no positive catalyst to the upside in the LBOs, private equity placements etc for this market anymore other than maybe a blip...
#4
thespookyone
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Posted 02 August 2007 - 05:29 PM
Jobs report-paper covers rock.
#5
nicolasillo
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Posted 02 August 2007 - 05:34 PM
Honestly, there is no upside for both Chrysler and JPM on this deal, it is a loosing deal even if it goes into the hands of the private equity. It will never get sold to the public again, the public will not buy these IPOs, of course unless the money comes from Chinese. I see no positive catalyst to the upside in the LBOs, private equity placements etc for this market anymore other than maybe a blip...
I agree. I have friends working in LBO deals in some of the big banks and for last two weekends they do not go to work! simply because of what you said, nobody is willing to buy their stuff anymore
That s a big change for these guys as they were used to spend every weekend at the office.
#6
arbman
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Posted 02 August 2007 - 05:40 PM
The bigger problem here is what the big guys, BSC, GS, MER, LEH etc will do in this current environment for all sorts of other financing that kept this market buoyant for so long...
I guess closing of LEND and AHM is also no news, there is no market moving money left in these entities. Although NFI, IMB remains as the next targets since they have no market left to sell their stuff, but these problems are very well understood now and should be priced in.
#7
ogm
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Posted 02 August 2007 - 05:49 PM
The bigger problem here is what the big guys, BSC, GS, MER, LEH etc will do in this current environment for all sorts of other financing that kept this market buoyant for so long...
I guess closing of LEND and AHM is also no news, there is no market moving money left in these entities. Although NFI, IMB remains as the next targets since they have no market left to sell their stuff, but these problems are very well understood now and should be priced in.
Well, the only upside is that if the deal closes, that will mean the credit markets aren't completely frozen. Crysler deal is one of the worst deals out there. If that one got sold finaly, means the rest will get sold too. And banks will get rid themselves off the bridge loans.
Crysler deal was pretty much the trigger for this ... Investors said.." More automotive debt ? no f-ing way.. not under these conditions"... and the global debt repricing of LBO debt has started.
I think LEH will be ultimately a great benefitiary of this massacre. And I'm considering entering it long around here. They are big pros in debt markets and I'm sure they'll scoop up a lot of stuff on the cheap. Can be a while till it plays out though.
#8
nicolasillo
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Posted 02 August 2007 - 05:51 PM
The bigger problem here is what the big guys, BSC, GS, MER, LEH etc will do in this current environment for all sorts of other financing that kept this market buoyant for so long...
I guess closing of LEND and AHM is also no news, there is no market moving money left in these entities. Although NFI, IMB remains as the next targets since they have no market left to sell their stuff, but these problems are very well understood now and should be priced in.
I totally agrre with you. And that s why I said old news. I also agree that only when one of the big banks will come out and say that they have problems we will move furhter down. That may take some time though. I was also having another thought though and even if it will sound a bit extreme I will share it with you
Tthe way the market looks for the months coming ahead is not that great. What we are experience at the moment is not something that will be solved from the one day to the other. Next year there are the election and I dont think that the current government will like going into 2008 with another problem (they already have many). So, what is the best and fast way to forget everything? I am thinking something like a mini crash. That s too extreme I know, but I just had that thought.
#9
arbman
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Posted 02 August 2007 - 06:03 PM
I agree orchastrating a crash is the best way to reset everything at this juncture, the dollar needs to bounce further north and the rates need to come down to boost into 2008...
I was also expecting this going into the 4.5 yr cycle low this year down to 1280-1300 area, we spoke about this here many times, I didn't even expect a rally from the March lows to new highs, it is the short interest that kept the market high and climbing higher, even now...
This decline should not be over unless the market goes sideways for months and months and I doubt it will do any good for the elections...
#10
nicolasillo
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Posted 02 August 2007 - 06:08 PM
I agree orchastrating a crash is the best way to reset everything at this juncture, the dollar needs to bounce further north and the rates need to come down to boost into 2008...
I was also expecting this going into the 4.5 yr cycle low this year down to 1280-1300 area, we spoke about this here many times, I didn't even expect a rally from the March lows to new highs, it is the short interest that kept the market high and climbing higher, even now...
This decline should not be over unless the market goes sideways for months and months and I doubt it will do any good for the elections...
The biggest winner after all you know who is?
BX
