7 replies to this topic

[hiker]

146.50 to 146.80 SPY..could easily be lows of day today see failed d/t line drawn off 7/31 high to yest mid day high support t/l connecting Wed low to yest low is above this price zone and premkt action is following it so far yest intraday support t/l is just above this price zone supports 1465 1460 1459 1454 a move below 1465 may easily mean yest low and 1460 support could be retested 151-152 could be next major stop in future days, if R is taken out in steps in future

Edited by hiker, 03 August 2007 - 08:31 AM.

[hiker]

200 sma on 15 min incl extended sessions has now failed, as has t/l bought 146.30's stop 146.20 area short flip to long, with low probability position size on this

Edited by hiker, 03 August 2007 - 09:01 AM.

[hiker]

1460 is being defended..t/l above near 147.20 to 30 may be upside tgt if this moves up...long still the 1 min looks like a potential turn...waiting for confirmation the 15 min and 60 min look dismal,tho simply ma convergence on the 60min..no bearish cross yet of ma's

Edited by hiker, 03 August 2007 - 09:15 AM.

[hiker]

failure to overcome 1466/67 has taken me flat..not wiling to short until a move below 1458/1460..and even then 1454 is dead ahead..just not willing to short down here...not yet anyway I am seeing higher highs and higher lows on this turn attempt off the bottom so far with MA's on 1 min generally pointing up,,so this turn could turn into something with upside

Edited by hiker, 03 August 2007 - 09:32 AM.

[hiker]

145.60's email I just sent out long SPY here with stop near (left blank here on purpose) ...could be wrong but risk management looks good..shorts leaning hard on SPY today at failure of 1465 to 1470 R....be careful with this one...I am VERY heavy and it is real risky coounter to all the system trading signals we use on 3 13 and 60 min out near 146.20 and flat for now..see d/t line off 1 min Wed highs

Edited by hiker, 03 August 2007 - 09:53 AM.

[hiker]

1465 retest of failure at R there...time to be short from there all 15min charts on these are on confirmed sells. BKX, XLF, XBD, XLE, OIH, SPY....this has been the case all week..so nothing really new...the 60 min is a different story in terms of the all week stmtn....15min on all these has found the 5 and 15sma and price below the 200sma, with the exception of SPY which has been above and below the 200sma on 15min this week off and on SPY short squeeze is easily possible so a move above 1465 R could be the sign of trouble to shorts

Edited by hiker, 03 August 2007 - 10:24 AM.

[hiker]

sometimes it pays to have a postion on amidst the chop, and manage the countertrend risk...in this case an upside move over 1470-1474 SPX cash...going into the last hour short for now. a sustained move back above 1454-59 may not be good for shorts. could easily go flat anytime maybe and call it a day. price is pulling down the 15sma on the 3min....a chart of beauty right now for the shorts note the 200sma on the 3min incl extended sessions tested the 200sma twice midday where rally failure occured

Edited by hiker, 03 August 2007 - 02:03 PM.

[hiker]

3min and 15 min SPX charts say to remain short for now...no change of price action vs 15sma and the confiig of 5 and 15sma's i am using no oscillators with this trading system...3 MA.s and price plus the displaced 3 ema and consider S & R where they reside relative to the direction of price moves..1432/37 to 1448 is a Suppport Zone that needs to fail before you call this something more than a BEAR TRAP

Edited by hiker, 03 August 2007 - 02:28 PM.