7 replies to this topic

[airedale88]

Hurst's principles of harmonicity and synchronicity states that as a cycle bottoms all smaller harmonic cycles bottom at the same time. the forecasted nominal 4.5yr cycle low is also the low for the nominal 18 month, 9 month, 20 wk, 10 wk, 5 wk, 2.5 wk etc cycles. this "nesting" of cycle lows made it's low intraday on 8/01.

that's the bottom for those shorter cycles goose.



we can use the intersection of half span centered moving averages for the 2.5 wk, 5 wk, and 10 wk cycles to determine price lows (the 10 wk half span has to be extrapolated to intersection). the intersection of these m.a.'s should be at the 1/2 way point from top to bottom for the move. since we are at the time window for the bottom of not just those smaller cycles but also for all cycles up to 4.5 yrs in length and harmonicity and synchronicity tells us all these cycles will bottom at the same time we can assume that the price low indicated by the half span intersections is the price low for the entire "nest" of cycle lows.

the bottom is in. we can chop around here for a bit, test the lows perhaps, but the next important trend is UP.

SPX with closing price 1/2 span moving averages....

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=2&dy=0&i=p30239516027&r=2014.png

[NAV]

aire, When you say we could test the lows, are you giving room for the possibility that we could end up making lower lows. How much of a tolerance would you give below 8/1 lows and yet feel confident that indeed the cycle has bottomed. In other words, where's your stop ?

[ogm]

Couple questions. 1. What is the status of the lcycles larger then 4.5 year ? 9 and 18 and 36, or whatever is the next one ? 2. What if we blow through that 8/1 low desicively ? What will that mean in Hurts' terms ? Tell that 4.5 year low to hurry up already.. its getting pretty scary here

[ken29]

Aire, I have a lot of respect for your great work, but it is hard to believe this correction will only last for 3 weeks with so much technical damages done on this market. Can the Hurst's cycle be off like..........a few weeks?

[arbman]

Aire,

I have a lot of respect for your great work, but it is hard to believe this correction will only last for 3 weeks with so much technical damages done on this market. Can the Hurst's cycle be off like..........a few weeks?

The correction is happening quite fast, but Hurst's model does not imply right here that the market should go straight up, it only says that the model predicts the lows are most likely in now because the lower FLD lines are too far away to trigger a meaningful break at this time. The market is likely to stay in a wide trading range, but for the intermediate term, the odds are favor the higher prices for the next 4-6 weeks...

[airedale88]

aire,

When you say we could test the lows, are you giving room for the possibility that we could end up making lower lows. How much of a tolerance would you give below 8/1 lows and yet feel confident that indeed the cycle has bottomed. In other words, where's your stop ?

nav, still looking to scale into a bigger position so i'll buy new lows. es's into the 1430 area would most likely trigger a money management stop, depending on what my average price ends up. avg cost now is 1459.50.

[airedale88]

Couple questions.

1. What is the status of the lcycles larger then 4.5 year ? 9 and 18 and 36, or whatever is the next one ?

2. What if we blow through that 8/1 low desicively ? What will that mean in Hurts' terms ?


Tell that 4.5 year low to hurry up already.. its getting pretty scary here

1. c'mon ogm, i posted this the other day.

sigma el up (sum of all longer term cycles plus smoothed long term fundamentals)

18 yr up

9 yr topping (time top, it's price top will be high right translated)

4.5 yr and all smaller cycles bottoming

2. in "Hurts" terms it'll hurt. in Hurst terms it'll mean my analysis is wrong.



3. if you're scared, get a big dog.



watch those INDU envelope charts. lower 4% band held the decline. that's cool. it's never pretty at an important low.

we have seen some pretty good internal damage. prices have held pretty well due to the strong cyclic uptrend.

Aire,

I have a lot of respect for your great work, but it is hard to believe this correction will only last for 3 weeks with so much technical damages done on this market. Can the Hurst's cycle be off like..........a few weeks?

ken, the correction has gone on longer than 3 weeks. look at the weakest sectors, they've been correcting for a while. internals started correcting a while back. a hidden correction masked by the averages. not all stocks/sectors top or bottom at the same time. many techs made their important bottoms a bit earlier in june and have held well. IMO they may be the first ones taking off again to the upside.

[GOOSE2]

Thanks