7 replies to this topic

[blustar]

My target of the lower 1430's has been hit on the SPX, but it looks like we could go much lower on Monday. Good support 25-30 points lower and if hit would give me the final low for the correction. Monday marks 50 days from the last 10 week cycle low which was also 50 days in length. My opinion is we see the low Monday for the move and go up from there IF we we tag the long term support in the lower 1400's on the SPX Monday. Looks like a capitulation move. HOLY SMOKES!!!

[saltlake]

Holy smokes is right. Your Back!!!!!!

[hiker]

Hey blu...how are you? if this capitulation move you suggest does form a bottom..a W bottom...or any other kind of bottom..how would you characterize the price action that may follow over the next 16 weeks subsequent to this bottom? range trading between 1400 and 1454 range trading between 1370 and 1488 no range trading, simply progressing upward taking out resistance with regularity a giant short squeeze that looks like the 30minutes prior to close on Wed. none of the above? upside target between now and 12/31? always appreciate your thoughts blu..peace to you and yours.

Edited by hiker, 03 August 2007 - 03:35 PM.

[blustar]

Holy smokes I'm back is right and about time after a long hiatus. I like what I see for a nice low forming here and a crash in October after an October new high. The set ups are just too nice too ignore. I'm sorry I missed a great short today as I was more inclined to go long on a pull back, but the pull back was more than I thought at least into Monday, but anyway a nice buying opp I think.

Hey blu...how are you?

if this capitulation move you suggest does form a bottom..a W bottom...or any other kind of bottom..how would you characterize the price action that may follow over the next 16 weeks subsequent to this bottom?

range trading between 1400 and 1454

range trading between 1370 and 1488

no range trading, simply progressing upward taking out resistance with regularity

a giant short squeeze that looks like the 30minutes prior to close on Wed.

none of the above?

upside target between now and 12/31?

always appreciate your thoughts blu..peace to you and yours.

Thanks, Hiker. I would think we tag the 5 year regression channel upper limits in the 1595 SPX area by October after what looks like it will be a V bottom (fooling most everyone including me) and then we see a 26% bear at the end of October after the 17 or 18th, the 13 week cycle top (and coincidentally the Bradley turn) or at least into December/January before a good low develops in the 1170/80 area, the bottom of the current trend channel

[hiker]

thanks, blustar.

[youmast]

Holy Smokes! Now I need to see the last guy back from the clinic. Where is Hyrake? Unlikely we bottom without him...

[selecto]

Holy Smokes!
Now I need to see the last guy back from the clinic. Where is Hyrake? Unlikely we bottom without him...

“Some cause happiness wherever they go; others, whenever…”
Oscar Wilde

[blustar]

In my hiatus, I have been reading a lot about the trading discipline of Gann. One of his biggest sins was "overtrading". Sometimes one needs some time off to reflect, and hence the "clinic" remark. Would recommend it for folks as often as you have time to rest. My gut inclination (given the rotten internals and short term overbought condition of the market) was to short the early rally attempt when the DOW came back to minus 22. My biggest problem is I tend to put too much store in E Wave counts, especially on the short term and they have tended to fool me (they can be very complex, especially in corrective waves). On a cycle basis, my work suggested new lows and we have gotten it on the SPX. What I would like to see now is a test of the current trend channels on both the SPX and NDX (lower 1400's and QQQQ 46.70 areas). IF we get that Monday, I would think we are off to the races to the upside and a retest of W bottom would be unnecessary (the market tends to frustrate even the most seasoned traders). The 48-56 day cycle low window runs to August 14 and Monday is day 50. I don't think this expected late cycle run in the market is giving us a longer term type bull, but more just into October and then the 18 month cycle down into Dec/Jan takes over. Most of the time the early Fall tends to be where most of the action occurs to the down side and I expect that this year. Gann warned of years ending in 7 and the statistics for years ending in 7 where the bull started in a year ending in 2 without so much as a 10% correction are not good for the market. They have tended to a 35% bear market with minimum being around 22%. I think we see more in the area of about 25% on the SPX. Gann also asks us to look at the 10 (Asian Contagion of '97) and especially 20 year cycles (crash of '87) for clues to market direction. He also liked the 100 year cycle and we have the Rich Man's Panic of 1907. On a longer term basis, I believe we are near the end of a Major Wave A in an A-B-C type [Y] Wave rally from 2002. With that said, this Fall/Winter should be wave "x" of B down with "y" of B coming to a higher top in early 2009, "z' of B in latter 2009 and a C Wave top in early 2010 ending with a major crash that year or [Z]. Fundamental problems for the market going forward include the sub-prime debacle, China's overheated market, and possible other factors like an attack on Iran or a so called terrorist attack on our nation (Israel has warned us that this could occur within a 90 day window). Just one phrase comes to mind going forward, "Caveat Emptor".