13 replies to this topic

[OEXCHAOS]

Semi, One thing to note. I've got no volume target on the ES, unless I go to the last contract. That leaves me with 140000 and 138400ish, I think. I don't think we get there on this leg, but that has me a little bit nervous, though. Mark

[SemiBizz]

Semi,

One thing to note. I've got no volume target on the ES, unless I go to the last contract. That leaves me with 140000 and 138400ish, I think.
I don't think we get there on this leg, but that has me a little bit nervous, though.
Mark

This is what I meant when I told you more than a month ago that the contract had it's limitations... that is why now you must refer to the SPX cash... the next volume support is the 2/27 low or 1389, However you must now note on the cash SPX that we are coming down on quite a bit more volume so really to me that says the door is quite open to the 1363 low of the year.... And given the big volume 1324 from that 9/15/06 candle high is not out of the question...

So there is the support, however I would be remiss not to note that the SPX Cash index trend has not quite turned down yet... until we see 5 down/red candles, you can regard all of this as countertrend....And I suppose it is quite possible to test deep into a retracement and still be in an uptrend. Going to be very interesting, I'm going to be quite suspicious of all this until I do see those 5 red candles in succession on the daily... The Nasdaq has shown already turned down, I"m waiting for confirmation on this one.

Edited by SemiBizz, 04 August 2007 - 03:12 PM.

[OEXCHAOS]

Your first cash target is almost to the penny the premium amount below the futures target. The second one is further away, but I haven't looked that far back.

BTW, it's not that hard to open up charts for the past contract and just look at them as you would the current contract. The targets still work.

BUT, in a really big move, I'd think that it'd be easier to get it from the Cash.

Mark

Semi,

One thing to note. I've got no volume target on the ES, unless I go to the last contract. That leaves me with 140000 and 138400ish, I think.
I don't think we get there on this leg, but that has me a little bit nervous, though.
Mark

This is what I meant when I told you more than a month ago that the contract had it's limitations... that is why now you must refer to the SPX cash... the next volume support is the 2/27 low or 1389, However you must now note on the cash SPX that we are coming down on quite a bit more volume so really to me that says the door is quite open to the 1363 low of the year.... And given the big volume 1324 from that 9/15/06 candle high is not out of the question...

So there is the support, however I would be remiss not to note that the SPX Cash index trend has not quite turned down yet... until we see 5 down/red candles, you can regard all of this as countertrend....And I suppose it is quite possible to test deep into a retracement and still be in an uptrend. Going to be very interesting, I'm going to be quite suspicious of all this until I do see those 5 red candles in succession on the daily... The Nasdaq has shown already turned down, I"m waiting for confirmation on this one.

[SemiBizz]

The problem is this... there's no way the volume of contracts for a short lived security like a futures contract can give you a clean signal when the market dives the way this one is, because price history is too shallow.... It is also tough to know when a breakout to all time highs runs into resistance. When there is nothing to compare in a price range you have to go with fibonacci and hope it works. On the other hand, on the cash side of the SPX going back down now, we do have bench marks, using those volume benchmarks as well as fibonaccis gives you more than one set of tools for a forecast... Since I don't concentrate on the SPX, I don't do the fib work for it. Maybe I will when I get time, just for gags.