7 replies to this topic

[ogm]

Oh, MY GOD !!!! Not THE REITS !!! Don't you know that all real estate is obsolete ? It will all be demolished and we'll all sleep in the moonlight ! Not a single person will ever make a single mortgage payement. Ever again ! Hordes of homeless people will be roaming the streets within 2 month. Not a single penny will be ever recovered from foreclosures ! NO, I don't think real estate is obsolete. Have you seen those charts ? There is absolute massacre out there. Everything that has even remotely to do with the words "real estate" and especcialy "MORTGAGE" is getting shredded into tiny little pieces on huge volumes. This is an absolute panic. And yet, listening to conference calls of ABR, NCT, NRF even RAS... I see very limited exposure to not only subprime but even residential mortages. Most loan portfolios performing well, and dividend yields are now 15+%. I already picked up some NRO and NCT today, and will pick up the rest monday. Dividends matter, people. I think the panic in reits is just about done. No, I don't think the subprime debacle is over. We will see more trouble in October and later, when rates will start reseting on many arms, but I think that all that is being priced in NOW.

Edited by ogm, 03 August 2007 - 08:51 PM.

[hedgehawk]

Ogm, I agree with most of your points. I was just looking at the daily charts on BSC and CFC using the OHLC indicators I can see some stealth accumulation over the previous two days as they closed in the middle of the spread. I see mass dumping on both today as they both closed near their lows of the day on extremely high volume. I do think they go lower, and I dont think they will let you out.......BSC down to 90's and CFC down to into the teens so resist your urge to hold on further weakness.

[vulture]

This isn't meant to be critical and so be it. After reading this board for the past 3 years, you kind of pick up on the tendencies of most of the traders on this board (i.e. some are macro early and get it right, some are just momentum cheerleaders, etc, etc). I find OGM is great many times right at the turn. In fact, his posting patterns pick up right around and into highly volatile times. Last summer and then again the posting picked up again in earnest several weeks back. However, I think he flips the other way too fast at times. It is something that has really been the hallmark of alot of bears in recent years. (Just check some of the corrections back in 04 and 05 for further proof). There is a tendency for alot of guys to take on weeks of churn against them on the upside, get that initial break, then turn very bullish very fast. IndexTrader made this very same observation on one of his great shorting campaigns a few years back. The perversity of the markets is such that macro bears can sometimes get hurt playing micro bull swings. Maybe OGM is right on this bull campaign, I just found it a bit at odds with the bearishness a few weeks back.

[ogm]

This isn't meant to be critical and so be it.

After reading this board for the past 3 years, you kind of pick up on the tendencies of most of the traders on this board (i.e. some are macro early and get it right, some are just momentum cheerleaders, etc, etc).

I find OGM is great many times right at the turn. In fact, his posting patterns pick up right around and into highly volatile times. Last summer and then again the posting picked up again in earnest several weeks back. However, I think he flips the other way too fast at times. It is something that has really been the hallmark of alot of bears in recent years. (Just check some of the corrections back in 04 and 05 for further proof). There is a tendency for alot of guys to take on weeks of churn against them on the upside, get that initial break, then turn very bullish very fast. IndexTrader made this very same observation on one of his great shorting campaigns a few years back.

The perversity of the markets is such that macro bears can sometimes get hurt playing micro bull swings. Maybe OGM is right on this bull campaign, I just found it a bit at odds with the bearishness a few weeks back.

Don't get me wrong, I'm still bearish, And this may very well be that big break.

But you have to invest money too, and shorts aren't investments So I'm looking to put some money to work and I think there are opportunites. Especcialy in dividend paying stuff. The yield spreads have created quite a few opportunites too. Something that was absent for the past 2 years. I think we finaly have normal spreads that factor in the risks.

I wouldn't touch retailers or consumer stocks with a 10 foot pole for example, and I was short many of them near the start of the decline, and covered for good profits. Same with financials. Except I'm getting bullish on banks now. But I'd short retailers into a rally again, if we get one.

But I think some select tech is looking very good. WDC, AMAT, some solar stuff, other cleantech plays. Heck, even INTC looks good, IMO.

But you're right, I tend to be early on both sides.

Edited by ogm, 03 August 2007 - 10:51 PM.

[greenie]

And yet, listening to conference calls of ABR, NCT, NRF even RAS... I see very limited exposure to not only subprime but even residential mortages. Most loan portfolios performing well, and dividend yields are now 15+%.

I already picked up some NRO and NCT today, and will pick up the rest monday.

Dividends matter, people. I think the panic in reits is just about done.

No, I don't think the subprime debacle is over. We will see more trouble in October and later, when rates will start reseting on many arms, but I think that all that is being priced in NOW.

Are you putting some serious dollar there, or is it just 5% of your portfolio, while 95% stays in trasury bonds (as you disclosed last year) ?

[JAP]

Oh, MY GOD !!!! Not THE REITS !!!

Don't you know that all real estate is obsolete ? It will all be demolished and we'll all sleep in the moonlight !
Not a single person will ever make a single mortgage payement. Ever again !

Hordes of homeless people will be roaming the streets within 2 month. Not a single penny will be ever recovered from foreclosures !


NO, I don't think real estate is obsolete.

Have you seen those charts ? There is absolute massacre out there. Everything that has even remotely to do with the words "real estate" and especcialy "MORTGAGE" is getting shredded into tiny little pieces on huge volumes. This is an absolute panic.


And yet, listening to conference calls of ABR, NCT, NRF even RAS... I see very limited exposure to not only subprime but even residential mortages. Most loan portfolios performing well, and dividend yields are now 15+%.

I already picked up some NRO and NCT today, and will pick up the rest monday.

Dividends matter, people. I think the panic in reits is just about done.

No, I don't think the subprime debacle is over. We will see more trouble in October and later, when rates will start reseting on many arms, but I think that all that is being priced in NOW.

We are nowhere near a bottom on REITs... bad move.

[beta]

Pull up charts of WRI, GGP, REG, KIM, etc -- all broadening megaphone tops.

Soon to morph into giant multi-year H/S tops. To quote Gollum: "Nasty !"

Rising yields and tightening credit will affect this part of the food chain, too.

[ogm]

And yet, listening to conference calls of ABR, NCT, NRF even RAS... I see very limited exposure to not only subprime but even residential mortages. Most loan portfolios performing well, and dividend yields are now 15+%.

I already picked up some NRO and NCT today, and will pick up the rest monday.

Dividends matter, people. I think the panic in reits is just about done.

No, I don't think the subprime debacle is over. We will see more trouble in October and later, when rates will start reseting on many arms, but I think that all that is being priced in NOW.

Are you putting some serious dollar there, or is it just 5% of your portfolio, while 95% stays in trasury bonds (as you disclosed last year) ?

Nope, not really serious. I'm still contemplating. I think the story with subprime is largely played out, but I'm now worried about commerical paper. And All other paper. And the safety of the world as this country goes into a nosedive of a bankrupcy. You get the idea Can't have much exposure to any single thing in this market. Have to diversify. But ... yield matters. I still think the stocks with high dividend yields and clean balance sheets are the safest bets in this market.