4 replies to this topic

[espresso]

If this week close under 73-74$ i have a very reliable sell signal indicating probably sub 50$! We will need to see new leadership in stocks...

Edited by Espresso, 06 August 2007 - 03:01 AM.

[Cirrus]

I'd wager plenty that we never again see two consecutive weekly oil closes below 50 in our life time. That assumes we don't see a global depression and even then it probably won't happen. Commodities do not trade like stocks. The price of commodities is tied to reality to a much greater level--LOL. There's a reason the CL prices are near ATHs despite record inventories in the US. It's about the balance of global supply and demand...and that balance grows more dire with each passing quarter. Peak oil is a reality and the fact the press isn't talking about it's ramifications is interesting in itself. More so is that there are only a few of us here that realize the situation. I think world CL production peaked this year or is peaking right now.

[PorkLoin]

The Economist, ("world's most respected economics journal") on July 19. First time to my knowledge that it's really addressed the point like this: "The world is consuming more oil than it is producing." - The Economist, July 14-20 print edition.

[Cirrus]

Thanks Doug.... I'm looking to take some LT energy positions in quantity when they correct and there's a 'recession mentality' that grips the market. I wouldn't be surprised if we had a recession but I doubt oil drops much. The big caps like COP and CVX are already trading at 8 to 10 times forward earnings...well below a market multiple. In a peak oil and real asset environement that's a bargain.

[traderpaul]

If this week close under 73-74$ i have a very reliable sell signal
indicating probably sub 50$!
We will need to see new leadership in stocks...

Oil went up stocks went up....Oil is going down and stocks will go up?.....What kind of logic is that?