10 replies to this topic

[airedale88]

friday's new swing low on NYSE Comp, SPX, etc., was accompanied by 339 new 52 wk NYSE lows
vs over 750 new lows a few days back. IMO that suggests fridays' late drop was a throw in the towel sell off of the weakest issues. the 9 major sectors of the SPX showed 5 holding above previous lows, 4 making new lows on friday, led by the XLF financial sector, no surprise there. we remain in a major cycle bull market.

Edited by airedale88, 06 August 2007 - 06:58 AM.

[mmm]

Thanks for the followup update. My models say we go on longer and lower before we bottom some time in Sept or Oct. At that time we will finally bottom or be retesting the bottom. I do not do cycle analysis. Could your cycles be off by that much from your experience? Thanks Dennis

[relax]

Thanks for sharing airedale!

[blustar]

Thanks, Airdale this agrees with my work pretty much. 48-56 days and 96-112 fits perfectly. I would not be surprised to see the low put in today IF we can go down and tag the channel support near 1405 SPX and QQQQ 46.70. This cycle suggest higher prices for me into mid October and then an end of year sell-off.

[airedale88]

Thanks for the followup update. My models say we go on longer and lower before we bottom some time in Sept or Oct. At that time we will finally bottom or be retesting the bottom. I do not do cycle analysis. Could your cycles be off by that much from your experience?
Thanks

Dennis

something would be very wrong in my analysis if that occurs. the next nominal 10 wk cycle should bottom in early oct, the next 20 wk low in december. i would not expect an important lower low at an oct 10 wk cycle bottom.

[mdwllc]

Thanks for the followup update. My models say we go on longer and lower before we bottom some time in Sept or Oct. At that time we will finally bottom or be retesting the bottom. I do not do cycle analysis. Could your cycles be off by that much from your experience?
Thanks

Dennis

something would be very wrong in my analysis if that occurs. the next nominal 10 wk cycle should bottom in early oct, the next 20 wk low in december. i would not expect an important lower low at an oct 10 wk cycle bottom.

Airedale: re cycle day count...have you found any site etc. that will provide you with the trading day count or do you have to do it manually as I have to? TIA MDW

[airedale88]

i do it all manually. anomalies would throw off any computer generated readings.

Edited by airedale88, 06 August 2007 - 08:13 AM.

[eminimee]

Warning Label: Compressed fear is flammable.

[eminimee]

two charts.........is the low in? No idea....just showing that it could be. Personally....I'd like another swoosh either before or after the fed....WWW?

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=2&mn=2&dy=8&i=p27723972068&a=90931516&r=2982.png

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$OEX&p=D&yr=2&mn=7&dy=0&i=p23933753533&a=82315405&r=4070.png

[sglasson]

what about RUT - wouldn't you expect it to rally even if during dead cat bounces?