11 replies to this topic

[dcengr]

Further upside from here will be bullish. Further downside from here will be bearish. I will be mega bearish if the recent lows are taken out. I will be mega bullish if the recent highs are taken out. Still collecting data, and what its saying is sentiment seems neutral to slightly bullish overall. Most of all, many who've successfully bottom picked past IT lows are bullish here.

[ogm]

hmm.. I don't think its "slightly bullish". Look at put call for example. Its waaay up there. Some measures are highest in 5 years, some comparable to 2002 lows. Scepticism once again abounds on every uptick. Don't think this is over by any stretch yet. At the same time we have companies of CSCO caliber posting huge earnings and saying that global economy is booming. look at INTC, MSFT, QQQQ and other charts, all sitting right at 55 EMA on daily, support. Don't think they are about to break down here. I think support will hold and they will move on, encouraged by earnings of CSCO, PCLN, Chineese companies and other tech stuff. And that all in the midst of end of the world mentaility again.

Edited by ogm, 07 August 2007 - 08:21 PM.

[ed rader]

it's really strange to see you two so bullish...or should i say so non-bearish . ed rader

[dcengr]

hmm.. I don't think its "slightly bullish". Look at put call for example. Its waaay up there. Some measures are highest in 5 years, some comparable to 2002 lows.

Scepticism once again abounds on every uptick.

Don't think this is over by any stretch yet.

There's several layers of sentiment that I look at.

Data seems to suggest small retail investors playing options are not as bearish as they've been in the recent past.

Data also seems to suggest there's some pretty darn panic buying of options by bigger $ people. Usually this leads to more upside when they're at extremes. Data seems to suggest they're at extremes. A few notable times these guys were at extremes, much more further downside occured. Its not common by a long shot, but its happened.

Hence my conclusion is that with this many puts and shorts piled up this thick by bigger $ people, if the market continues to move down, its in big trouble.

But if it goes up, then it would be the usual bottom like previous bottoms.

See the dilema? But I also think that with this many shorts, we can't crash. But another 8% drop wouldn't be out of the question.

[ogm]

it's really strange to see you two so bullish...or should i say so non-bearish .

ed rader

Can't get stuck in one frame of mind all the time. Have to be flexible to survive and make money
I was bearish just a couple weeks ago ... not anymore

This is a manic depressive market. Sentiment swings very fast. And especcialy bearish sentiment builds very fast.

Look at the number of doom and gloom websites and predictors and the number of people who subscribe to them and pay money to read that stuff. Their business is flourishing. There is huge demand for the doom and gloom services. Its absolutely amazing.

Or message boards.. Capital stool is all beared up like crazy for example. I'd say even more then usual.

Look at long term AAII chart.. huge bulge of bearishness.

Or put/call at some historical highs right here.

I'm just tired of reading doom and gloom, I know it all already..lol
At the same time I'm looking at stocks and companies, and I see good values, dividends, growth stories, and so on.


I will short the next short setup, like we had 2-3 weeks ago, and I'll buy the next rally. Rinse repeat. But I haven't been particulary bearish for the past 12-15 month or so.
At one point everyone will be tired of doom and gloom, and will get bullish...... then we'll see

Edited by ogm, 07 August 2007 - 08:31 PM.

[ed rader]

it's really strange to see you two so bullish...or should i say so non-bearish .

ed rader

Can't get stuck in one frame of mind all the time. Have to be flexible to survive and make money
I was bearish just a couple weeks ago ... not anymore

This is a manic depressive market. Sentiment swings very fast. And especcialy bearish sentiment builds very fast.

Look at the number of doom and gloom websites and predictors and the number of people who subscribe to them and pay money to read that stuff. Their business is flourishing. There is huge demand for the doom and gloom services. Its absolutely amazing.

Or message boards.. Capital stool is all beared up like crazy for example. I'd say even more then usual.

Look at long term AAII chart.. huge bulge of bearishness.

Or put/call at some historical highs right here.

I'm just tired of reading doom and gloom, I know it all already..lol
At the same time I'm looking at stocks and companies, and I see good values, dividends, growth stories, and so on.

At one point everyone will be tired of doom and gloom, and will get bullish...... then we'll see [color=#FF0000]

we could be getting there.

ed rader

[eminimee]

Just one thing I'm waiting for ......to go from Bullish to megaBullish....

Edited by Teaparty, 07 August 2007 - 08:47 PM.

[eminimee]

scroll down to charts

http://www.decisionp...AC/SWENLIN.html

[ogm]

scroll down to charts

http://www.decisionp...AC/SWENLIN.html

how about this one. Market isn't that expensive. And even though full S&P div yield is low, a lot of companies have 5%+ div.

http://www.decisionp...arts/0risk.html

[denleo]

scroll down to charts

http://www.decisionp...AC/SWENLIN.html

how about this one. Market isn't that expensive. And even though full S&P div yield is low, a lot of companies have 5%+ div.

http://www.decisionp...arts/0risk.html

OGM, based on your chart (link), valuations are the same as 1973 (before huge decline) or 1995 (before huge run up). Any statiustical analysis behind this one?

And every time people justify their short term views based on long term valuations, the market does something unexpected. Do you know what unexpected is right now? I do. Going nowhere in a volatile manner.

Denleo