10 replies to this topic

[SemiBizz]

http://bigcharts.mar...&mocktick=1.gif



http://bigcharts.mar...&mocktick=1.gif



2007 vs 2000

[pdx5]

High Volatility = Instability = Violent move one way or the other is coming

[SemiBizz]

So, looking at the 2007 chart for a minute, we failed to test the 7/26 high today on MORE VOLUME... that is a stealth sign of weakness. Overall the similarities in those two charts posted above outweigh the differences. I suspect volume is going to lighten up tomorrow, so I suspect we'll try and test the 2632 high from 7/26 on lighter volume and give it up between there and 2641... Now should the volume continue to be strong then so will the volatility... right now the market is going straight up, and it's going straight down. I have a chart that shows that below... Although there is positive momentum, it may not be strong enough to meet the projection of the current channel which is a new high by 8/20. These are very sharp angles... and you can see on the 2000 chart that this type of behaviour is not to be unexpected... I see 3 days up here, and if we follow suit we could see 5 down now.





the last 2 channels I call the doomsday channel and the recovery channel. As I mentioned above, these markets are going straight up and straight down, I am keeping the doomsday channel lines intact on the chart because one day we're going to drop right back down to it and I believe that this could be a totally violent drop, so I want to keep some idea of support... Today's rally came on higher volume and failed to test the 7/26 high... first sign of weakness in place.

Edited by SemiBizz, 08 August 2007 - 07:11 PM.

[ogm]

Today's rally came on higher volume and failed to test the 7/26 high... first sign of weakness in place.

So we had a strong up day, on higher volume then the previous day, with much better A/D and thats bearish ? Just because Nasdaq didn't rally more points then it did in one day ?

And looking at the past 5 days on the chart, 4 of which are green candles on HEAVY volume doesn't mean anything ?

Looks darn freaking bullish to me.

[SemiBizz]

Today's rally came on higher volume and failed to test the 7/26 high... first sign of weakness in place.

So we had a strong up day, on higher volume then the previous day, with much better A/D and thats bearish ? Just because Nasdaq didn't rally more points then it did in one day ?

And looking at the past 5 days on the chart, 4 of which are green candles on HEAVY volume doesn't mean anything ?

Looks darn freaking bullish to me.

Momentum is measured on CONSECUTIVE candles, not CUMULATIVE...


I presented the bullish case.. new high by 8/20. I'm not FROM Missouri, but I did live there in my youth. I need VERIFICATION.

Edited by SemiBizz, 08 August 2007 - 07:26 PM.

[thespookyone]

That last half hour not only had the "look" of a bull-it had the SMELL of one two. I was long calls, so I don't say that out of spite. I'm flat as of the close, because these "glitch moves" don't seem to turn out so well the next day. I know this-if the market continues to have "glitches" that effect it's basic stability-investors, especially foreign ones, will soon dissapear-how bullish will that be?

[ogm]

That last half hour not only had the "look" of a bull-it had the SMELL of one two. I was long calls, so I don't say that out of spite. I'm flat as of the close, because these "glitch moves" don't seem to turn out so well the next day. I know this-if the market continues to have "glitches" that effect it's basic stability-investors, especially foreign ones, will soon dissapear-how bullish will that be?

As long as it keeps closing green, they'll be here

[thespookyone]

"As long as it keeps closing green, they'll be here " Great in theory-lets see who's there tomorrow-that should give us a nice feel for what that type of action provokes.

[eminimee]

I've been extremely bullish and sometimes I have to kick myself to get in line and remain neutral...or at least open to everything.....it helps to peak at this.....that macd is saying something....I'm flat presently. Coincidently where that low is on the macd back in 98 was when breadth peaked out....and if I'm not mistaken.....Fib has that as the orthodox high before that dip in 98

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=M&st=1980-01-01&i=p96420667959&a=90720826&r=2195.png

Edited by Teaparty, 08 August 2007 - 08:52 PM.

[thespookyone]

Great take, Teaparty. I have taken the bullish ride with you, as well, from OEX 672. A lot of hit and run for me, because there seems to be a lingering chance for a hard and fast drop. Todays action only added to those fears for me. When OEX barely touched 700 today-the market fell apart like a cheap sweater-obviously a meaningfull and touchy area. Rumor or not, I find that somewhat telling. I love looking back like you did, and comparing oscilators historically-GREAT value to it! Due to the incredible volatility, I am avoiding holding overnight, for the most part. Many traders I know are under the impression we get an automatic VIX drop here-an assumption I am unwilling to make. Serious Sept. out of the money QQQQ put action today-if confirmed by open interest tomorrow-would speak to me. At any rate, great chart as usual, and THANKS! Spooky

Edited by thespookyone, 08 August 2007 - 10:07 PM.