7 replies to this topic

[nicolasillo]

This may resume the downward trend

http://www.bloomberg...6...&refer=home

[humble1]

as i have argued before here and been criticized for it - freezing withdrawals is a very dangerous thing to do. think about economic and financial history. this is how systemic runs START ! this one is going WORLDWIDE !

[relax]

the subprime market isn't expanding, so it's not as if it suddenly is affecting more banks subprime has been priced into the market and is old news just my view

[nicolasillo]

How has it been priced? By the market going up till end of July? And two weeks were enough to price in the risk of the subprime problem? I don t think so. That s my view?

the subprime market isn't expanding, so it's not as if it suddenly is affecting more banks

subprime has been priced into the market and is old news

just my view

[hedgehawk]

I guess the stocks that just bounced hard are gonna get wacked today........BSC, CFC, FNM etc due to liquidity concerns.......

[skyymaster]

How has it been priced? By the market going up till end of July? And two weeks were enough to price in the risk of the subprime problem? I don t think so. That s my view?

the subprime market isn't expanding, so it's not as if it suddenly is affecting more banks

subprime has been priced into the market and is old news

just my view

I would agree, it has not been fully priced yet.

"France's biggest bank (BNP) stopped withdrawals from investment funds because it can't determine a fair value on their holdings. As this happened, credit defaulttraders are now saying that the risk of holding corporate bonds increased as well this morning.

The Fed and European Central Banks are now planning to increase liquidity in an effort to stem what appears to be a deepening financial crisis.

Where does that leave Bernanke?

The BNP problem and expectations that problems will arise in both Hedge Funds and Mutual Funds is putting
pressure on the Fed to lower interest rates. That would put the Fed in a situation where they ignore
their inflation fears for now, put the financial markets fire out now, and deal with inflation later.

Note how there was a huge spike yesterday on increasing long term interest rates. That took the
TYX out of its descending channel and up through the next resistance level in one day.

Financial problems are causing instability. One bank raised the bar on mortgage rates
last week. It raised mortgage rates to 8% with a requirement of having at least a 30% down payment.
This is all part of a credit contraction that is going on and that is a dangerous situation that
could spill over to consumers spending less and corporate profits dropping.

This is the biggest problem the Fed has had to deal with since 1987. Volatility will remain high
for the coming weeks as the Fed and the markets try to put band aids and duct tape on the problems."

This is from stocktiming a better news interpretation source.

[nicolasillo]

If FED will lower interest rates, and I believe this is what they want to do but they couldn t not just do it in their last meeting because that would be too obvious, I give it a small rally in the markets, but not for long, when people will start realising that this is the begining of the end

How has it been priced? By the market going up till end of July? And two weeks were enough to price in the risk of the subprime problem? I don t think so. That s my view?

the subprime market isn't expanding, so it's not as if it suddenly is affecting more banks

subprime has been priced into the market and is old news

just my view

I would agree, it has not been fully priced yet.

"France's biggest bank (BNP) stopped withdrawals from investment funds because it can't determine a fair value on their holdings. As this happened, credit defaulttraders are now saying that the risk of holding corporate bonds increased as well this morning.

The Fed and European Central Banks are now planning to increase liquidity in an effort to stem what appears to be a deepening financial crisis.

Where does that leave Bernanke?

The BNP problem and expectations that problems will arise in both Hedge Funds and Mutual Funds is putting
pressure on the Fed to lower interest rates. That would put the Fed in a situation where they ignore
their inflation fears for now, put the financial markets fire out now, and deal with inflation later.

Note how there was a huge spike yesterday on increasing long term interest rates. That took the
TYX out of its descending channel and up through the next resistance level in one day.

Financial problems are causing instability. One bank raised the bar on mortgage rates
last week. It raised mortgage rates to 8% with a requirement of having at least a 30% down payment.
This is all part of a credit contraction that is going on and that is a dangerous situation that
could spill over to consumers spending less and corporate profits dropping.

This is the biggest problem the Fed has had to deal with since 1987. Volatility will remain high
for the coming weeks as the Fed and the markets try to put band aids and duct tape on the problems."

This is from stocktiming a better news interpretation source.

[humble1]

this freezing of withdrawals is a NEW DIMENSION. and you can be darn sure the insiders are getting THEIR $$$ and their friends' and family's out BEFORE the freeze. the fact that this may be allowed by the prospectus will MAKE NO DIFFERENCE to the panic, imho. i have said here several times: bring your important money HOME, e.g. the money you need to live on or pay tuition from or blah blah blah. because when you find out about your fund, it will be too late.