6 replies to this topic

[NAV]

As long as the weekly CCI remains below -100, the bottom ain't confirmed and the market will remain on tenterhooks. Ooops, the futures are down 16 points from yesterday's close. Did someone fatfinger that late day trade again ? Yesterday close, the bears were wondering WTF it was. Today morning it's the bulls turn. It's called volatility folks!. Seems like those pesky shorts will make some money again

[rkd80]

As long as the weekly CCI remains below -100, the bottom ain't confirmed and the market will remain on tenterhooks.

Ooops, the futures are down 16 points from yesterday's close. Did someone fatfinger that late day trade again ? Yesterday close, the bears were wondering WTF it was. Today morning it's the bulls turn. It's called volatility folks!. Seems like those pesky shorts will make some money again

we cant just go straight uip from here. this would imply a V-bottom formation and those almost never happen. this decline is good, will be a great buying opportunity provided the retest is successful.

i am more curious in how to play today's short side. Futures down 1% is a little paralyzing, as it already looks OS on the 60 min charts....

[NAV]

As long as the weekly CCI remains below -100, the bottom ain't confirmed and the market will remain on tenterhooks.

Ooops, the futures are down 16 points from yesterday's close. Did someone fatfinger that late day trade again ? Yesterday close, the bears were wondering WTF it was. Today morning it's the bulls turn. It's called volatility folks!. Seems like those pesky shorts will make some money again

we cant just go straight uip from here. this would imply a V-bottom formation and those almost never happen. this decline is good, will be a great buying opportunity provided the retest is successful.

i am more curious in how to play today's short side. Futures down 1% is a little paralyzing, as it already looks OS on the 60 min charts....

Looks already oversold ? - Nah, it's overbought...There's plenty of roooom.

How to play this ? - Remember partial profits = no anxiety. Closed half my OEX puts yesterday. Holding the rest 50%. Don't need to worry about how to get back in.

Edited by NAV, 09 August 2007 - 07:54 AM.

[greenie]

NAV, what's your rule for partial profit? I have been trying something similar lately (in much larger timeframe) and it has been very helpful.

[steve]

The SPX had a retracement rally on 6/2/06 that approaced a declining daily 21 ma very similar to yesterday's SPX. Will the market go to new lows as in 1986?

The SPX had a retracement rally on 6/2/06 that approaced a declining daily 21 ma very similar to yesterday's SPX. Will the market go to new lows as in 1986?

Sorry, should be as in 2006

[NAV]

NAV, what's your rule for partial profit? I have been trying something similar lately (in much larger timeframe) and it has been very helpful.

Sell 50% after a risk/reward of 2.5:1 has been met. If i use a stop of 4 points on ES, i would take partial profits at 2.5 * 4 = 10 points. I take profits on the rest half, if either a risk/reward of 5:1 objective is met or the signal changes or sometimes based on experience/gut feel.

Again, this is w.r.t to ES. One has to tune the risk/reward objectives, based on the volatility characteristics of the instrument.

Edited by NAV, 09 August 2007 - 08:14 AM.

[greenie]

Sell 50% after a risk/reward of 2.5:1 has been met. If i use a stop of 4 points on ES, i would take partial profits at 2.5 * 4 = 10 points. I take profits on the rest half, if either a risk/reward of 5:1 objective is met or the signal changes or sometimes based on experience/gut feel.

Thanks !