6 replies to this topic

[ogm]

Here are 2 things to look at here...

First of all that trendline break. The trendline from 1998 bottom. Does it mean anything ? Definite MAYBE.
NYSI is an oscillator and the number of stock on NYSE changes, so who knows. Or maybe it means the end of the bull market in general. As I sad. MAYBE.

Second is the RSI and MACD. Can this go lower ? sure it can, it did in 1998. Much lower. But the RELATIVE condition is extremely oversold.

Even in 2002 bottom, at the depth of a major meltdown with the fears of 9/11 and impending Iraq war and all that.... this kind of setup was only 1 week away from a major bottom. And in all other cases RSI got this low we rallied too. Also notice that this week's candle is smaller then the previous 2 weeks. Momentum is slowing down. Of course Friday's action isn't known yet.

So my uneducated guess is that even there is big risk that it can go lower, its also looking sold out enough to take the risks long.

Edited by ogm, 09 August 2007 - 11:15 PM.

[traderpaul]

Repeat after me....."Oversold is not a buy'......We are 15 trading days from the multi-year top.....If this is the bottom.....Then, this got to be the shortest bear market in history......You blinked and you missed it.....

[kaiser soze]

NYSI has broken down out of a symmetrical triangle. Textbook TA expects a restest of the 98' lows.

[ogm]

Repeat after me....."Oversold is not a buy'......We are 15 trading days from the multi-year top.....If this is the bottom.....Then, this got to be the shortest bear market in history......You blinked and you missed it.....

Repeat after me "Even bear markets don't go down in a straight line." Especcialy when they are accompanied by high levels of fear.

I'm not buying indexes, I'm buying individual stocks. Mostly those that present value from my perspective and pay 4-13% dividends.
Besides, you can write calls on them and generate addition income, considering premiums are very high.
This isn't the time to buy premiums.. its the time to sell premiums.

NYSI has broken down out of a symmetrical triangle. Textbook TA expects a restest of the 98' lows.

I'm not Tom Mccleelan or Fib, but NYSI is just an oscillator. It Oscillalates. thats what it does. I don't think trendlines here work in the same way.

[kaiser soze]

True NYSI is an oscillator-everybody knows that. The trendlines you drew showed how they did a great job of estimating turns in the NYSI over the duration of the entire bull market. But now that the NYSI has broken below those trendlines, you think that is not significant ? At the minimum, it signals to me the end of the bull market. A similar breakdown occurred with the Naz (you can check it out) a little earlier. So the NYSI breakdown is more confirmation.

[mortiz]

The StockCharts weekly McSum data is simply the daily Friday McSum values plotted, and looks nothing like the actual weekly NYSE McSum using the Barrons weekly breadth data which calculates weekly advances and declines by comparing each component's Friday over Friday price change, here is what the "real" weekly AD McSum currently looks like.



The actual NYSE weekly AD McSum low over the past decade was posted in early 2000, below -500, while the October 1998 weekly AD McSum low was -128. There is quite a ways to go for taking out either the 1998 or 2000 low. The weekly McSum low in 2000 illustrates the impact of non-operating company issues on the NYSE breadth data.

As a side note, the weekly AD McSum traversed the important +1500 level earlier this year, which promises higher price highs when this current cleansing exercise runs its course.... over the past 67 years of this data, higher highs have followed all corrections following a weekly McSum value exceeding +1500.

FWIW

Randy N.

[ogm]

True NYSI is an oscillator-everybody knows that.

The trendlines you drew showed how they did a great job of estimating turns in the NYSI over the duration of the entire bull market.

But now that the NYSI has broken below those trendlines, you think that is not significant ?

At the minimum, it signals to me the end of the bull market.

A similar breakdown occurred with the Naz (you can check it out) a little earlier. So the NYSI breakdown is more confirmation.

Take a look at 2002.... right at the bottom we broke the previous trendline. from 1998 lows. And yet that was a major bottom. Did it mean anything back then ? Does it mean anything now ? who knows.