11 replies to this topic

[A-ha]

I think this should concern bulls little bit... I know it is fun to catch the bear market rallies but you know where the big bucks are

[selecto]

[A-ha]

I know it looks attractive for a big snap back rally ... but thats another problem too ...

Edited by A-ha, 11 August 2007 - 03:04 PM.

[A-ha]

To better understand why this market is different than what we used to have , the following chart should be considered...

When this sucker breaks below where it is now, which it will in coming days / weeks as foretold by RSI and high volume intra-month penetration of the green TL , the panic shall start.

That will be the sort of selling climax, intense and broad based that most of the young investors who didnt experience the plunge in 98 will never forget

Edited by A-ha, 11 August 2007 - 03:27 PM.

[swingtrader]

Hi, XD,

The another problem you pointed out is that the equity PC is low while the OEX PC is high, right?

Thanks

ST

[A-ha]

It is the Equity PC that is troublesome , an army of sword catcher retails is out there

[Russ]

How much more do you want? It should concern you that Airedale who predicted this low last winter has now gone long.

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$NYSI&p=W&b=1&g=0&i=p17054226534&r=4709.png

[ogm]

It is the Equity PC that is troublesome , an army of sword catcher retails is out there

2 issues.

First... Notice previous lows.... Equity P/C has a fast drop before a rally starts. It can be viewed as negatiuve, or positive. Its the turn in P/C that marks a bottom.

There were some charts posted a few days ago that had certain p/c measures near the bottom of 2002. Doubt they changed that much, considering


Second ... Please explain the mechanics of why and how the break on the NASI trendline is meaningful. And why the Nasi trendlines are meaningful at all. Its just an ocsillator of a/d yes it has to turn up, but trendlines... look and NYSI for example... it broke the rising trendline of bottoms from 1998..... exactly at the bottom of 2002....

Yes that trendline break was THE BOTTOM.

That means all the way through 1998-2000 bull market and 2000-2002 bear market we had a trendline of rising bottoms on NYSI and then at washout point that trendline got broken. Explain that please.

Edited by ogm, 11 August 2007 - 08:07 PM.

[NAV]

XD,

How did the 2005 bottom look like ? Exactly similar to today, using your own trendline methodology. Look at the green trendline that i have drawn on your chart. We all know what happened after that.

What is more imporatant here than that trendline break is the Nasdaq MCO is now very close to the zero line. If we get a decent breadth day on Monday, the MCO will cross above the zero line and that will hook the summation index up. Then we would have a nice bullish divergence on the MCO charts.

In bull markets, the big bucks are on the long side only. In bear markets, there's big bucks on both the sides.

Edited by NAV, 11 August 2007 - 10:05 PM.

[spielchekr]

I can find only two longtrem trendline breaks on the $NYSI chart, 2002 and now. And I think I drew them in an intentionally bullish manner.

The 1st date of breakdown was 7/15/02 at 5188.85. The lowest close afterwards was seven trading days later, 4549.66 on 7/23/02 (>12%). The next day, the intraday low was 4428.49 (nearly -14%).

The 2nd date of breakdown was 7/31/07 at 9554.50. The lowest close afterwards was three trading days later, 9370.60 on 8/3/07 (-2%). Five days later, the intraday low was 4428.49 (-3%).

So what we're seeing this time around is capitulative volumes with a total containment of capitulative prices, at least as measured by longterm $NYSI trendlines.

But here's the rub for me. I see where concurrent capitulation in both price and volume was very bullish. So it's to be different this time with price actually able to ignore an internal breakdown similar to the one that proved very bullish in the past. In fact, it's even more bullish, isn't that right?

BTW, without a trendline for the $NYSI to bounce on this time, how exactly does one determine when it might turn back up?