7 replies to this topic

[greenie]

This is the first time during this bull run, when we have a bounce after a large decline and I am afraid to add more shorts. This is the effect of so many large declines like last May and this Feb that were followed by another rally. If other permabears are feeling the same and reacting in the same manner, I do not see how we continue to have a bull market.

[selecto]

Greenie, what is your definition of a "bear market" and (this being a TA board) could you point out on this chart when it began?

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=W&yr=5&mn=4&dy=0&i=p72205258014&a=113714691&r=3162.png

[eminimee]

....I'll put words in his mouth......I think he means the bear started in 2000...and we are still in it.....dead cat bounce to 1556 so far.

Edited by Teaparty, 11 August 2007 - 07:26 PM.

[greenie]

By bear market, I mean SPX will now continue to make lower highs and lower lows for a while ultimately taking it below 2002 low. So, March 2003 (or Oct '02 for some indices) to July '07 was the bull phase of this cycle that will be followed by this bear phase. IYR is the equivalent of NDX 2000. It has seven consecutive years of gains, and was the leader of rally (July '02 < Oct '02). Now it is leading down, and dropped >20% below peak.

In the bigger cycle, 2000 top was higher than the current top, and we just had a extended bear flag. Plot $SPX:$XEU for last eight years and it will be amply clear. If you do not believe anybody really cares about $SPX:$XEU, please explain this chart. Why did this index quadruple top in euro?

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$XBD:$XEU&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&i=t28918210222&r=5576&.png

[nicolasillo]

....I'll put words in his mouth......I think he means the bear started in 2000...and we are still in it.....dead cat bounce to 1556 so far.

Maybe he is not wrong
Have a look at the Real DJI Index. Hasn t made new highs. I suppose SPX must be the same. Have to make a new chart for SPX...but I ll be going to bed shortly as over here is 2:46 in the morning

[JAP]

Maybe he is not wrong
Have a look at the Real DJI Index. Hasn t made new highs. I suppose SPX must be the same. Have to make a new chart for SPX...but I ll be going to bed shortly as over here is 2:46 in the morning

Why is it when anyone gives a bearish opinion, the permabulls converge and attack?

Thanks for posting that chart nicolasillo.

[ed rader]

Maybe he is not wrong
Have a look at the Real DJI Index. Hasn t made new highs. I suppose SPX must be the same. Have to make a new chart for SPX...but I ll be going to bed shortly as over here is 2:46 in the morning

Why is it when anyone gives a bearish opinion, the permabulls converge and attack?

it's a necessary ingredient for a bear market .

and many of the permabulls are really bears that have been conditioned by......



ed rader

Edited by ed rader, 11 August 2007 - 10:07 PM.

[NAV]

Greenie, what is your definition of a "bear market" and (this being a TA board) could you point out on this chart when it began?

A bear market is a market filled with bears.

Edited by NAV, 12 August 2007 - 01:16 AM.