19 replies to this topic

[relax]

http://www.nytimes.c...amp;oref=slogin

[selecto]

"I trade charts. period."

Its all in the last bar. And I must say that your presentations are very much in the spirit of this TA board, and substantially more helpfull than the water cooler analysis that drips in from time to time.

[n83]

exactly tp

so many negative stories at the moment - what will shorts do when negative stories dry up

Do you really think that negative stories will dry up so easily? It seems that you and teaparty think of the current situation as a simple one. Do you know how many funds and banks are involved? Do you know why they do not come out to say that they have problems? Because they cannot do it each one at a time.....that would be giving too much info to competitors about their accounts......Do you really think that everything will be solved so quickly and the market will head upwards again? In 1998 it was only one company....now there are so so many, and the fact that there is this uncertainty about how many banks, funds are involved and how big is the loss..this is what makes it even worse. Maybe it would be better if they all came out and said what the real situation until then I believe, yes there will be rallies, but everybody will be scared that the next minute another bad story will come out. This is not 1998 in terms of the problem this is much worse. I can t believe that you take it so lightly and you think we are over with this correction.

I trade charts. period.

then i would not use CSCO to prognosticate for the entire market or even the NAZ at that..CSCO is a flight to quality-gg

poverty, scandals, crises etc have always existed

what has definitely changed is the way the media focuses on it

focusing on your charts therefore seems to be only way to deal with it

otherwise you are basically trading the media's lust for stories

"Brian Wesbury wrote a nice piece for the Wall Street Journal yesterday. In it, he pointed out that while the over whelming majority of professional forecasters see no recession soon, the majority of Americans believe we are already in a recession. Indeed, the public is fed such a rich diet of gloom and doom by the media that they hold a negative bias about the state of the world. Even a majority of the 64% who say they have personally never been better off, say that the world is falling apart."

"the majority of Americans believe we are already in a recession"..maybe because they already feel that way (the IBs the brokers the traders may never feel it)

[eminimee]

N83: "then i would not use CSCO to prognosticate for the entire market or even the NAZ at that..CSCO is a flight to quality-gg" ......who is? Get your facts straight before adding something useless. My take me end up being wrong....but I'll never have to eat crow. CSCO is just ONE of many "tells" I'm observing.

Edited by Teaparty, 12 August 2007 - 03:23 PM.

[arbman]

(1) This started as a fear with the liquidity problems, the breath deteriorated, the last rally was largely on the foreign inflows... (2) Turned into "the Fed we trust" now as they injected with the other central banks to maintain the market sanity. (3) Next is either a panic or everyone rushing back in... BTW, this happened during the 8.6 yr Armstrong panic cycle... - kisa

[mike123]

exactly tp

so many negative stories at the moment - what will shorts do when negative stories dry up

Do you really think that negative stories will dry up so easily? It seems that you and teaparty think of the current situation as a simple one. Do you know how many funds and banks are involved? Do you know why they do not come out to say that they have problems? Because they cannot do it each one at a time.....that would be giving too much info to competitors about their accounts......Do you really think that everything will be solved so quickly and the market will head upwards again? In 1998 it was only one company....now there are so so many, and the fact that there is this uncertainty about how many banks, funds are involved and how big is the loss..this is what makes it even worse. Maybe it would be better if they all came out and said what the real situation until then I believe, yes there will be rallies, but everybody will be scared that the next minute another bad story will come out. This is not 1998 in terms of the problem this is much worse. I can t believe that you take it so lightly and you think we are over with this correction.

Nope, its all just overblown speculations about who may be involved and in what numbers.

Here are some numbers for you....

"Jerry Bowyer wrote yesterday about the "sub-prime mess". He notes that of the 44 million mortgages in America, 14% are sub-prime. Of those, 13% are currently at least one payment behind, however, the large majority of the late payers are still paying and many are working with lenders to restructure payments. The bottom line is that there are about 250,000 mortgages that moving to foreclosure. The total value of these loans is about 7 Billion Dollars. If these houses are worth 30% less than what is owed, the total money lost will be in the neighborhood of 2 Billion Dollars. Americans have net worth of $53 Trillion Dollars. The "total hit" will be in the neighborhood of .003% of value. "

OMG CRISIS !!!!

Lets be realistic here, lets say the numbers will get worse, but... The point is LENDERS will work with borrowers to get payments. LENDERS don't want foreclosures. All these charts about how many ARMS are scheduled to reset aren't worth dick, because payments and terms will be renegotiated 10 times before they will be foreclosing.

The situation isn't as dramatic as it sounds.

The biggest problem are the leveraged lenders who were buying the paper. Now that the market dropped the paper in price they exploded. Otherwise this whole thing isn't that big of a deal. Almost all of those leveraged lenders have been cleaned out by now. We have 100+ mortgage lenders out of business.

Subprime is not the only problem here. There are trillions of MBS and 20% loss in value is $200 or $400 Billion.

[ogm]

The loss in value isn't ans issue here, unless you're leveraged. Leverage is an issue. If the market is valuing some particular set of loans at 50 cents on the dollar or 8- cents or 95 cents, doesn't matter as long as those loans are performing. But if you're leveraged... and your creditors see that the market is repricing the collateral and start askign for the money back.. THEN its a problem. Its not the defaults in loans that killed AHM and alike, its the margin calls. But those "hard to value loans" can be on your books forever just trickling in payments.

Edited by ogm, 12 August 2007 - 08:08 PM.

[n83]

N83: "then i would not use CSCO to prognosticate for the entire market or even the NAZ at that..CSCO is a flight to quality-gg"

......who is? Get your facts straight before adding something useless. My take me end up being wrong....but I'll never have to eat crow. CSCO is just ONE of many "tells" I'm observing.

so it is a tell (or any other term one may want to use)..that you are using aren't you (among others and i am sure it is not the only one) for the naz? I have seen that chart of CSCO before on what it might be saying for the naz..

i just said i think it is a flight to quality

WHY IS EVERYONE so uptight and angry? amazing..

ENUFF !

[ogm]

WHY IS EVERYONE so uptight and angry? amazing..

ENUFF !

Just another sign of a bottom. Tension gets very high at turning points.

[n83]

WHY IS EVERYONE so uptight and angry? amazing..

ENUFF !

Just another sign of a bottom. Tension gets very high at turning points.

I think it is a sign of more volatility to come