4 replies to this topic

[LarryT]

One last post on the 235 new moon cycle. This cycle is only 1 day off from the 1969 top as far as the date of the new moon, the full moon and the solar eclipse is on the same day. The drop from final turn 14 to first turn 1 was 34.5%. The 1987 drop from final turn 14 to first turn 1 was 45.9%. If the turn 14 high is in as I think it is then a typical drop to first turn 1 of 35% drops the SP-500 to 1011. As we say in Atlanta, "y'all be careful now ya hear" LT d:^)

Edited by LarryT, 12 August 2007 - 02:53 PM.

[Cirrus]

very, very unlikely IMO. not saying it can't happen but in this environment a market drop like that in conjunction with the housing market would be an economic catastrophe--it's too easy to control stock prices with liqudity these days. One of my tells is the XAU as it will get the future direction of excess liquidity right, IMO. It's been basing for a long time on the weekly chart--nice rectangle. It tried to BO but pulled back to just below the BO level. Should the XAU take off I think all will be well with the markets for a while.

[SilentOne]

Cirrus,

One of my tells is the XAU as it will get the future direction of excess liquidity right, IMO. It's been basing for a long time on the weekly chart--nice rectangle. It tried to BO but pulled back to just below the BO level. Should the XAU take off I think all will be well with the markets for a while.

I very much agree. I have been scaling into SPY longs and calls Friday. As long as the gold market is holding up, I am optimistic. If it falls apart, then bigger trouble lies ahead. Reality is the PMs turn at the first hint of hedge fund liquidation, a series of programmed trades that hit the illiquid PM market (and very obvious at times).

cheers,

john

[redfoliage2]

One last post on the 235 new moon cycle. This cycle is only 1 day off from the 1969 top as far as the date of the new moon, the full moon and the solar eclipse is on the same day. The drop from final turn 14 to first turn 1 was 34.5%.

The 1987 drop from final turn 14 to first turn 1 was 45.9%. If the turn 14 high is in as I think it is then a typical drop to first turn 1 of 35% drops the SP-500 to 1011.

As we say in Atlanta, "y'all be careful now ya hear"

LT d:^)

If you know the crucial differences between 1987 and nowadays, then you should know it won't happen agian.

[SilentOne]

Inflate or die!! cheers, john