5 replies to this topic

[greenie]

So I am whispering - my NRO investments are up 7% Do you now understand what 'value trap' means?

[OEXCHAOS]

So I am whispering - my NRO investments are up 7%

Do you now understand what 'value trap' means?

You are down the dividend, which takes you down to just a 6% unrealized gain on a small position.

I don't consider a stock for purchase with so little upside.

You're mistaking luck for skill. IMO, and you don't know the first thing about value. I may not be any kind of Bill Miller, but at least I worked with him and listened to him closely. I doubt that you can explain a value trap when you don't know what value IS.

And, of course, you're also mistaking a short term speculation for an investment. This issue hasn't moved enough for me to consider buying more or selling. It ought to take months for this to work out and even then I hope it takes longer so I can collect the divvy and take long term gains.

M

[greenie]

You are down the dividend, which takes you down to just a 6% unrealized gain on a small position.

Not a small position - if you missed my yesterday's post, I upgraded it to a full position yesterday.

Trading vs investment depends on the time frame of holding IMHO. I am going to hold it for at least 6 months, or 50% - whichever comes first.

Does Bill Miller use stops, or he keeps buying more at ever deflating price? Is there a room for mistake in his value calculations?

[greenie]

Also wanted to mention for NAV that yesterday's entry was at 14.48, not 13.48. It was a typo. Also holding part of the position from 14.7.

You're mistaking luck for skill. IMO, and you don't know the first thing about value. I may not be any kind of Bill Miller, but at least I worked with him and listened to him closely. I doubt that you can explain a value trap when you don't know what value IS.

Wow !! That was one hell of an arrogant reply. The markets will help you to get humbled, don't worry

[OEXCHAOS]

You are down the dividend, which takes you down to just a 6% unrealized gain on a small position.

Not a small position - if you missed my yesterday's post, I upgraded it to a full position yesterday.

Trading vs investment depends on the time frame of holding IMHO. I am going to hold it for at least 6 months, or 50% - whichever comes first.

Does Bill Miller use stops, or he keeps buying more at ever deflating price? Is there a room for mistake in his value calculations?

If it's a large position, then you are foolishly risking money unnecessarily.

As for a 6 months or 50% gain, OK, we'll watch for that. Last time you took 3% and ran in two days. If we crash, you might get right. I'll probably buy more. I doubt you'll get right (by your definition) unless we have really big problems. In which case, so many other issues will have taken a GREATER beating. Which is why this is a stupid short.

Smart investors, Short assets at a premium, not a discount. The converse is also true.

I've watched Bill add to losing positions for months, if not years. I follow his approach, only loosely. I'd rather own quality than not, so if one of my value ideas is down but a better quality issue is very cheap, I may eschew the existing value and add another.

So, should we crash here, I'll take my ample cash and buy a lot of highest quality stuff. Only after I'm loaded up will I add to this one. On the other hand, if not much that I'm interested in is cheap, I'll add to my small NRO position. So far, though, I'm not down enough to consider, net of dividend.

M

[OEXCHAOS]

Also wanted to mention for NAV that yesterday's entry was at 14.48, not 13.48. It was a typo. Also holding part of the position from 14.7.

You're mistaking luck for skill. IMO, and you don't know the first thing about value. I may not be any kind of Bill Miller, but at least I worked with him and listened to him closely. I doubt that you can explain a value trap when you don't know what value IS.

Wow !! That was one hell of an arrogant reply. The markets will help you to get humbled, don't worry

Arrogant? How? You've proven that you don't know anything about value investing. I'm just calling a spade a spade. I only do so because you've made a nuisance of yourself with regard to others asking legitimate investment questions. But I did leave open a possibility for doubt. You MIGHT be able to explain what a "value trap" is, but I doubt you can offer much more than, "when you bought something that looked cheap and it went down."

As for humbling, It happens all the time. There's nothing worse than being wrong when others rely upon you. Even when it's part of the game, and even when it's small it still sucks wind and it reminds one that there's no certainty, no matter how hard you try.

Now, here's a bit of homework for you. I just picked two short ideas without looking at the charts (I love shorting hot restaurants and anything with any real debt that services home BUILDING is a good short in my view). CAKE, and HD. Would you be better or worse short them vs. NRO? Don't forget that dividend, either.

Here's another question. Which would you rather take over, CAKE, HD, or NRO (that you can liquidate for at least a 10% immediate profit)?

M