9 replies to this topic

[NAV]

I posted this bottom spotter signal here a few days back. It's only appropriate for me to update it, since it failed. The signal failed when it took out the Aug 6 lows. Now we have a open ended risk again here with that broad area of support into focus again - SPX 1360-1410. I see two possibilites here. A washout move i.e a drop of 30-50 SPX points today and a reversal, which would create a nice IT bottom. Instead if we begin a sharp rally from the get go, then a ST low will be confirmed setting the stage for a couple of weeks of rally and then another retest probably in late Sep or Oct. Which one ? It's too early to say. I would prefer a washout here, in which case i would load up on LEAP calls heavily. But then, everyone wants it. Markets are perverse. All said and done, we continue to remain in a LT bull market. Nothing has changed in that regard. The only sectors currently in a bear market are HGX and REITs. I woudn't touch these sectors even with a 10 foot pole, at this stage of the game.

Edited by NAV, 15 August 2007 - 08:06 AM.

[ogm]

I'd say be careful with signals. This market will do the unpredictable. No wonder the quantum hedgehogs are getting destroyed.

[LarryT]

I'd say be careful with signals. This market will do the unpredictable.

No wonder the quantum hedgehogs are getting destroyed.

I predict next week is a huge down week.......

[NAV]

I'd say be careful with signals. This market will do the unpredictable.

No wonder the quantum hedgehogs are getting destroyed.

Have you too joined the league "TA doesn't work anymore. Ignore you signals". LOL

Folks get destroyed becuase of overleverage and lack of risk control. Not because of signals.

[skyymaster]

I'd say be careful with signals. This market will do the unpredictable.

No wonder the quantum hedgehogs are getting destroyed.

I predict next week is a huge down week.......

I will agree with you in that Anticipation for bounce is overwhelming. IMHO ! I could not believe one of the posters here putting the farm down. He better sell quickly on the DCAT Bounce!

[LarryT]

I'd say be careful with signals. This market will do the unpredictable.

No wonder the quantum hedgehogs are getting destroyed.

I predict next week is a huge down week.......

I will agree with you in that Anticipation for bounce is overwhelming. IMHO ! I could not believe one of the posters here putting the farm down. He better sell quickly on the DCAT Bounce!

Tihs first hour today is critical, this week has an up bias toward at least 1480 and its just not happenning, larger cycles are running right by this up bias week. Next week they are all in down bias, it cold be a huge down week.

[humble1]

the down part makes MOST sense. think of 14,000 hedge funds getting redemption notices to one degree or another. that will take a bit of cash raising. i believe in t/a, but i alaso believe it what the best trader in the middle of the last century said: let the technicals CONFIRM the fundamentals ! there ARE technicals which are now confirming the fundamentals, if you pick your time frame(s). seek and ye shall find. one place is the trendline breaks. also, today's stop runner down below and quick rally is not all that unexpected. but if we get back down below that double bottom, and do so quickly, there you have yet ANOTHER message from the market. this is a technique used by floor traders and swing traders for decades.

Edited by humble1, 15 August 2007 - 08:57 AM.

[ken29]

NAV, I agree with your highly probable late Sept/Oct retest scenario, but I also see a remote possibility of a final washout in Sept/Oct at much lower prices (SPX at low 1200's). Do you see that as a possibility in your forecast?

[NAV]

Countertrend buy signal at 11:00 Est On ES. FWIW

[NAV]

NAV,

I agree with your highly probable late Sept/Oct retest scenario, but I also see a remote possibility of a final washout in Sept/Oct at much lower prices (SPX at low 1200's). Do you see that as a possibility in your forecast?

Too early to speculate on that.