3 replies to this topic

[ogm]

The indexes are covering up the real damage. If you don't think we have enough damage in the past 2 month look at the position of an average SPX stock relative to their 52 highs.

We're talking comparisons to the most severe declines of the bear market.

Remember those weren't easy times....

Country is under terrorist attack.
Dot com bubble bursting.
We're getting ready to invade Iraq ...
Jobs market collapsing.

Fear Fear Fear.




RELATIVE TO 52-WEEK HIGH/LOW (Rel to 52): Decision Point tracks each stock in a given market index and determines the location of its current price in relation to the 52-week high and 52-week low. We express this relationship using a scale of zero (at the 52-week low) to 100 (at the 52-week high). A stock in the middle of its 52-week range would get a "Rel to 52" value of 50. These charts show the average "Rel to 52" for all the stocks in the market index shown.

Edited by ogm, 15 August 2007 - 05:24 PM.

[arbman]

None of the funnymental reasons you said, including the dot com bubble, were as serious as this credit bubble pop. You know why? The Fed can not lower the rates before the USD bounces high enough, or the economy is depressed enough, no gov't official can do anything about this market. This is a serious monetary collapse, the previous burst was only a business slow down, right now, you can not finance [bleeeep]... The technicals are working very well, btw, for all those who are telling that the technicals are not working anymore. They are telling us that a huge trend is underway. The new lows, keep your eyes on the new lows, it is the opposite of the bull market... - kisa

[ogm]

None of the funnymental reasons you said, including the dot com bubble, were as serious as this credit bubble pop.

You know why? The Fed can not lower the rates before the USD bounces high enough, or the economy is depressed enough, no gov't official can do anything about this market. This is a serious monetary collapse, the previous burst was only a business slow down, right now, you can not finance [bleeeep]...

The technicals are working very well, btw, for all those who are telling that the technicals are not working anymore. They are telling us that a huge trend is underway. The new lows, keep your eyes on the new lows, it is the opposite of the bull market...

- kisa

Hmm.. There were serious fundamental issues...

Back then we had mounting layoffs and the whole sector of economy was imploding. I'm not even talking about sentiment related to stocks.

Enron collapse, Tyco, etc all corporate dirty laundry coming out. Analysts being sued left and right and so on. There was total mistrust to stocks and stock market.

There was huge fear about consumer... with the layoffs and stock market wealth being destroyed and what will the sentiment after Sept 11 attacks will be. Will people ever go to the mall again ? Remember ?


As for fundamentals... we have global economy powering full steam ahead. And jobs aren't getting destroyed. Yes a few hedgehogs blew up. Yes, a Few loans went bad, but there are major offsetting factors.

We have once in a lifetime global economic shift. Exports going up. Silicon Valley on a hiring frenzy.

Yes, right now everyone is frozen and scared.. but at least we don't have the market shut down for 3 days like after Sept 11. Remember how scared everyone was back then ? they even shut the market down.

I'm talking short term fear here. People are worried about safety of MMF funds.
Yes, I'm worried and scared too, but life goes on.


So comparing these problems and Sept 11-2002 problems I think the levels of fear are very comparable here. And the short term oversold conditions are comparable too.

Edited by ogm, 15 August 2007 - 05:53 PM.

[arbman]

I guess I am overreacting a bit, the yield curve is almost steep again, but if this credit situation implodes, it is going to be worse. The bond market leads everything, including the stock markets since it provides the liquidity. The stock market is getting to the point where there might be more compounded effect, although the bond market is not really signaling for one, yet!

Edited by kisacik, 15 August 2007 - 06:44 PM.