39 replies to this topic

[EntropyModel]

[older post of this i've made invisible, I tried but can't delete it so if any other moderator canplease do...thanks]

OK I think have figured out how to 'hot link this' ie. it should update here in real-time rather than having to goto stockcharts list....though I won't put al the charts here, just one's I've put comments on.

*just a note to say I think the Fearless Forecast sentiment poll ise unrealiable right now, having followed them for at least 3years, there's just something weird going on with far more votes than usualr right after the poll opens..nearly all bearish...could be wrong, but thats my feeling. Perhaps some blog or website has referred to it generated a bunch of newbie's, dunno', but Im not using it to guage sentiment right now. It also doesn't gel with sentiment i'm seing elsewhere such as odd lotters and Rydex.

Were in pre-labor day low volume b.s. mode this week..but sell signal is in effect, we have a brief backtest as blue box alluded to.....one way or another we will work our way to buy signal...where we stand by then will give me a better read....so far, nothing has happened to change my view that is a corrective move off the low, that will not reach new all time highs before a retest of the low.....but we could be a range bound market for weeks here....so for trading purpose I just follow the technical signals and not worrying about the bigger picture for now.


http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=30&yr=0&mn=2&dy=0&i=p59961123720&a=115172808&r=181.png







http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=10&yr=0&mn=2&dy=0&i=p26172510476&a=115441354&r=2089.png

Edited by entropy, 28 August 2007 - 12:53 AM.

[EntropyModel]

Just some shorter term thoughts on this chart occasionally...don't hold me to it.



http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=15&yr=0&mn=0&dy=10&i=p65203526878&a=115469680&r=4965..png

Edited by entropy, 28 August 2007 - 11:31 AM.

[EntropyModel]

Ah nice and quiet over here isn't it, makes me wann'a post more charts?



Here's another swing signal I've been watching...no its not a magic bullet, but tis' interesting....and along the lines of my current thinking.

[SilentOne]

hi entropy,

Studying that chart, please allow me to sound you out. The first spike high in the $NYMO is indicative of a "B" or 4th wave high, but not necessarily confirmation the correction is over. The next decline that ensues after the $NYMO spike (and last dip if its a bull) must put in a higher low on the $NYMO with some kind of retest of the bottom or new lows.

So the $NYMO spike is telling you to look for at least one more strong decline or correction. So far, I'm still leaning towards buying the decline, but maybe I won't bottom pick this time.



Thanks for posting your stuff.

cheers,

john

Edited by SilentOne, 28 August 2007 - 02:29 PM.

[EntropyModel]

hi entropy,
Studying that chart, please allow me to sound you out.

Hi John.....you are more than welcome to sound me out, questions, all thoughts you have all welcome.
Though I may not be too coherant today, as I've have been training(bike/run) like a demon in Phoenix heat today (111f today...28days over 110 this summer which is a record....a rather sick one...oh yeah..but its a dry heat LOL )...and so am probably delerious.

The first spike high in the $NYMO is indicative of a "B" or 4th wave high, but not necessarily confirmation the correction is over. The next decline that ensues after the $NYMO spike (and last dip if its a bull) must put in a higher low on the $NYMO with some kind of retest of the bottom or new lows.

I like the way your thinking so far. ...the only thing I would add is, 'usually indicative of B or 4th wave', The exceptions on the chart is the december 2001 instance, which kicked off a bear market, and so I believe might be relevant this time.

So the $NYMO spike is telling you to look for at least one more strong decline or correction. So far, I'm still leaning towards buying the decline, but maybe I won't bottom pick this time.

In short, Yes. But is just one of many reasons, some of which I've listed previously in this thread, and give or take a few points the rally has conformed to what I expected and decline began where expected, so, the real challenge I believe is going to be determining is this current decline is 'the retest', or, another rally will occur first....I'm going to use my signals to tell me that hopefully. I will say right now I lean toward 'one more rally' from around 1400-1415 area I marked on chart, perhaps to about SPX 1500....but right now my signals remain on SELL so lets see where we are when I get a buy.

Thanks for posting your stuff.
cheers,
john

u..r welcome.

Mark

Edited by entropy, 28 August 2007 - 07:16 PM.

[mss]

I don't think I have told you how much I enjoy reading and viewing your work. Good stuff, and yes it is nice to post here. The only questions or comments you get are "real" and thoughtful. Keep up the good work. mss

[underabigw]

entropy and mss, I just wanted to take a minute and thank both of you for your excellent posts. Even though both of you are far ahead of me on your knowledge of the markets, I do have at least enough brain power to know talent when I see it. Please continue your posts. There are those of us you recognize and appreciate your work. Thanks again, and best of luck to the both of you. BW

[EntropyModel]

Thanks mss & underabigw....it is good to know I'm not just reading my own posts ....I also appreciate all the posters on the swing board even if I don't trade the same way. Mark.

Edited by entropy, 29 August 2007 - 12:36 AM.

[SilentOne]

hi entropy,

I like the way your thinking so far. ...the only thing I would add is, 'usually indicative of B or 4th wave', The exceptions on the chart is the december 2001 instance, which kicked off a bear market, and so I believe might be relevant this time.

So noted. Thus as I was trying to describe and will say another way: If the $NYMO puts in a lower low on the ensuing decline, that would be a tipoff for a larger bear - thus we need to see a $NYMO higher high to stay IT and LT bullish.

Great stuff! Thanks again.

cheers,

john

[SilentOne]

thus we need to see a $NYMO higher high to stay IT and LT bullish.

That should have read " a $NYMO higher low" ...

cheers,

john