8 replies to this topic

[rightside]

Co-workers saying all the buying today was just bargain hunting bottom fishers...hmmm I personally will be watching any dip to get on board. Best, RS

[ogm]

I think the financials have put in a bottom here. Banks looking great, brokers recovered nicely too on massive volume. Also look at REITS. Mortgage REITS that had the crap kicked out of them where mostly green today during the DOW 350 point plunge. I mean the culprits of the massacre where green, while everything else was tanking. That says to me they are washed out for the time being. IYR closed strongly green on good volume too. A lot of other REITS too. If Financials and REITS are done selling here... there is no real downside leadership left. That means the world isn't coming to an end and we'll be just fine.

[rightside]

I think the financials have put in a bottom here.
Banks looking great, brokers recovered nicely too on massive volume.



Also look at REITS. Mortgage REITS that had the crap kicked out of them where mostly green today during the DOW 350 point plunge. I mean the culprits of the massacre where green, while everything else was tanking.

That says to me they are washed out for the time being.

IYR closed strongly green on good volume too. A lot of other REITS too.


If Financials and REITS are done selling here... there is no real downside leadership left. That means the world isn't coming to an end and we'll be just fine.

Yes,

Excellent observation on the REITS and Financials! I wonder what the mantra will be this time...They put the wheels back on the bandwagon and are going to start announcing a new party soon. We need to see some follow thru tomorrow to get me back in long. 771 on the Russell will catch my interest tomorrow.

Caught todays second wave up for some 20 plus points on the ER, now that was a blessing!

Best,
RS

[Wombat]

I'm not sure if the bottom is in or if people were covering shorts in financials to meet margin calls. What fundamentally got fixed with the credit mess?

[ogm]

I'm not sure if the bottom is in or if people were covering shorts in financials to meet margin calls. What fundamentally got fixed with the credit mess?

Not sure I understand the logic...

If you were short brokers.. oy're sitting on a lot of profit, why would you need to meet margin calls ?

Fundamentaly, we'll find out later.

Basicaly the defaults are still very low. There is more fear and speculation then real damage being done. And the market has priced in the end of the world already. We had multpiple discussions going on the safety of Money market funds.. Thats real fear.

[pdx5]

SPX is still 80%+ higher than its lows in 2003. That does not sound like there is panic or fear out there, In 1987 the DJI declined 23% something in ONE day. Now that is panic and fear squared.

[ogm]

SPX is still 80%+ higher than its lows in 2003.
That does not sound like there is panic or fear out there,

In 1987 the DJI declined 23% something in ONE day. Now
that is panic and fear squared.

Its not about the absolute levels. Its all relative. 1998 panic was at much higher levels then 1994, wasn't it ?


However I posted chart yesterday with average S&P stock vs its 52 week high.. we're at the levels of Sept 11 and 2002 bottoms on that indicator.

[JAP]

More than half of todays rally today was short covering. SPX will re-test the lows again... no doubt.

[ogm]

More than half of todays rally today was short covering.

SPX will re-test the lows again... no doubt.

Don't know how one measures short covering vs buying...

But I wouldn't exclude the retest thats for sure.