8 replies to this topic

[dcengr]

Far as I've been on this board, no bottom gets away this easily with the masses correctly calling the bottom. That being said, I'm bullish short term, though this could just be a 4 up with a 5 to come. Time to see what OPEX and monday brings us.

[LarryT]

Far as I've been on this board, no bottom gets away this easily with the masses correctly calling the bottom.

That being said, I'm bullish short term, though this could just be a 4 up with a 5 to come.

Time to see what OPEX and monday brings us.

My experiance has been when something is this easy and obvious you can bet the farm it is not what it appears to be. Still see this drop to the 6.85 extension as wave one down for a super cycle top. Until a trend line from the 7-19 top to the 8-08 high is closed above I continue to favor the top is in. See chart at LT's Blog.

Larry d:^)

[ogm]

Far as I've been on this board, no bottom gets away this easily with the masses correctly calling the bottom.

That being said, I'm bullish short term, though this could just be a 4 up with a 5 to come.

Time to see what OPEX and monday brings us.

1. This board always picks tops and bottoms. Not many trend followers here.

2. Sentiment swings on a dime, you know. It can be ultra bearish one day, and then 2 hours later.. everyone is bullish.

3. When the MCO hit extreme lows and summations went deeply oversold and fear gauges started pushing September 11 levels, it wasn't hard to start betting on a IT bottom. Apparently we just needed a divergent setup. And we got positive divergences today in spades.

Is it THE bottom ? who knows. But we can get a good few weeks of a rally going here easily.

C'mon.. people were seriously discussing the safety of Money Markets...... And then they point to some indicator and say its not oversold enough.... Talk about Fear. You can feel the sentiment by the discussions, no need for some stupid indicator on some website.

Not that VIX and Put/call didn't go ballistic too.


Looking at today's volumes and divergences we're done selling for the time being, but I'm guessing we'll have to base around here for a few days before the rally starts building.

Edited by ogm, 16 August 2007 - 08:47 PM.

[dcengr]

Far as I've been on this board, no bottom gets away this easily with the masses correctly calling the bottom.

That being said, I'm bullish short term, though this could just be a 4 up with a 5 to come.

Time to see what OPEX and monday brings us.

1. This board always picks tops and bottoms. Not many trend followers here.

2. Sentiment swings on a dime, you know. It can be ultra bearish one day, and then 2 hours later.. everyone is bullish.

3. When the MCO hit extreme lows and summations went deeply oversold and fear gauges started pushing September 11 levels, it wasn't hard to start betting on a IT bottom. Apparently we just needed a divergent setup. And we got positive divergences today in spades.

Is it THE bottom ? who knows. But we can get a good few weeks of a rally going here easily.

C'mon.. people were seriously discussing the safety of Money Markets...... And then they point to some indicator and say its not oversold enough.... Talk about Fear. You can feel the sentiment by the discussions, no need for some stupid indicator on some website.

Not that VIX and Put/call didn't go ballistic too.


Looking at today's volumes and divergences we're done selling for the time being, but I'm guessing we'll have to base around here for a few days before the rally starts building.

My projection is for a choppy rally for 2 weeks before next leg gets going.

Some declines are meant to last longer than others.

[spielchekr]

But market participants are just as capable of ignoring the obvious. That's what makes this so fascinating to the market gods. I mean, why else would they want to be market gods anyway?

My experiance has been when something is this easy and obvious you can bet the farm it is not what it appears to be...

Larry d:^)

[ed rader]

Far as I've been on this board, no bottom gets away this easily with the masses correctly calling the bottom.

That being said, I'm bullish short term, though this could just be a 4 up with a 5 to come.

Time to see what OPEX and monday brings us.

almost perfect 10% correction and then up up and away?

a little too cute for me plus the majority in IYB's poll are looking for the next 75 pts. to be down.

if we rally hard tomorrow and keep the gains into the weekend i think a stronger argument can be made for some sort of bottom.

ed rader

Edited by ed rader, 16 August 2007 - 09:42 PM.

[thespookyone]

"C'mon.. people were seriously discussing the safety of Money Markets...... " Considering the rules by which many of the money market funds can be constructed (partially loaded with unsafe crap) I hardly consider that an irrational fear, at this point-with the mass of bad paper floating around. Actually I find the "not that big a problem" arguments much more irrational.

[ogm]

"C'mon.. people were seriously discussing the safety of Money Markets...... "

Considering the rules by which many of the money market funds can be constructed (partially loaded with unsafe crap) I hardly consider that an irrational fear, at this point-with the mass of bad paper floating around. Actually I find the "not that big a problem" arguments much more irrational.

I'm not saying its irrational fear.. But its FEAR nonetheless.

When you're starting to discount VERY DEEP. You're worried not about subprime, or commercial paper, or stocks going down.... but something that may happen at the very core of the system. Thats serious fear.

Market is a discounting mechanism....

Ona side note...

Here is an interesting thought... If the US CORE financial system was in trouble ... why is the whole world piling into US treasuries in the flight to safety ? Why not anything else ?

One reason is definitely its the most liquid market in the world, but with all the credit problems and budget deficits and everything else the US treasuries where still chosen as global safeheaven..... Just musings.

Gold bugs got duped again. No one wanted gold in the time of crisis. There is a lesson to be learned here.

Edited by ogm, 16 August 2007 - 10:02 PM.

[arbman]

I agree this board is becoming too good, people on this board are not easy fades at the turning points. They might mess up the upside or take the next sell signal as the end of the world, but their parameters and arguments are usually accurate during the turns, especially ST. I personally think that tomorrow will float higher, but it will test the lows with a vengence early next week, then probably chop chop up...