6 replies to this topic

[NAV]

Look at the chart i posted below in "Ain't TA beautiful". Despite that 50 bp cut, all that the price did was kiss that channel and get rejected sharply. Now if we can go up and penetrate that channel with vengeance and hold above it, i will have to conlcude that what we saw was a temporary economic shock and the fed injection cured it. If that is the case, we should just accelerate here upwards without ever revisiting the 8/16 lows again. If the 8/16 lows gets taken out for any reason, i will have to conclude that the Fed has failed miserably and it will be de ja vu all over again, like ironcross mentioned in his post today morning with his reference to 2001 Fed cut. That would mean that the Fed is responding to a deteriorating economic cycle ( Prechter's thesis ). Will let the maket speak, instead of me jumping to conclusions. It should be interesting next few weeks.

[IYB]

Look at the chart i posted below in "Ain't TA beautiful". Despite that 50 bp cut, all that the price did was kiss that channel and get rejected sharply. Now if we can go up and penetrate that channel with vengeance and hold above it, i will have to conlcude that what we saw was a temporary economic shock and the fed injection cured it. If that is the case, we should just accelerate here upwards without ever revisiting the 8/16 lows again.

If the 8/16 lows gets taken out for any reason, i will have to conclude that the Fed has failed miserably and it will be de ja vu all over again, like ironcross mentioned in his post today morning with his reference to 2001 Fed cut. That would mean that the Fed is responding to a deteriorating economic cycle ( Prechter's thesis ).

Will let the maket speak, instead of me jumping to conclusions. It should be interesting next few weeks.

Your points are very taken, NAV, and I agree with what you say. Except that the Fed will not have succeeded or failed based on this one single isolated {re}action. This was only the first shot accross the bow, or maybe the second if you count the heavy injections as the first, with many more to follow- over time.

But from my perspective, I think I would have titled this string "Market action and Fed reaction", as that's the pecking order in the real {global} world....

"The inevitable march towards lower rates continues...." And yes, TA really is beautiful! Best, D

[NAV]

Market action and Fed reaction

I think that would have been more appropriate.

Great call back in June. More than the call, i admire your ability to sit tight with the trend.

Best to you as well !

[rkd80]

Market action and Fed reaction

I think that would have been more appropriate.

Great call back in June. More than the call, i admire your ability to sit tight with the trend.

Best to you as well !

amen, sitting with the trend while prices bounce up and down like a goat on steroids takes a lot of patience/discipline/skill.

[IYB]

Great call back in June.

Thanks NAV. That was TA in it's absolute purest form- momentum accross the board had gone deeply negative while prices were making new highs. That's why I agree so heartily with your statement about TA. Keep up the great work!

[Venatici]

Look at the chart i posted below in "Ain't TA beautiful". Despite that 50 bp cut, all that the price did was kiss that channel and get rejected sharply. Now if we can go up and penetrate that channel with vengeance and hold above it, i will have to conlcude that what we saw was a temporary economic shock and the fed injection cured it. If that is the case, we should just accelerate here upwards without ever revisiting the 8/16 lows again.

If the 8/16 lows gets taken out for any reason, i will have to conclude that the Fed has failed miserably and it will be de ja vu all over again, like ironcross mentioned in his post today morning with his reference to 2001 Fed cut. That would mean that the Fed is responding to a deteriorating economic cycle ( Prechter's thesis ).

Will let the maket speak, instead of me jumping to conclusions. It should be interesting next few weeks.

Indeed, TA is beautiful. As for Fed intervention... I felt that the rules of the game were changed in the middle of the game (naive of me) to benefit the house. Why not let the market sort it self? Anyway win some, lose some.
Holding a couple of shorts for the weekend.
Have a nice weekend.

[traderpaul]

Can someone do a study on the Fed and the market.....In the ole days Edison Gould's three steps and stumble worked like a charm.....Now it seems there is a relationship between lower rates and lower market and higher rate and a higher market.....Look at the rate increases we had and the market kept on going up.....Higher rate good for the market and lower rate also good for the market?