2 replies to this topic

[Trend-Signals]

This morning, I was briefly capitulated ... when Asian/Euro markets were sharply sold off before the Fed intervention.

But, now, it is more like....


1997 VIX pattern de ja vu, 1997 ^ 1998 VIX level 37.50
http://www.traders-t...showtopic=74898



http://www.traders-t...?...74889&st=20

CAPITULATION - "R"eversal DAY, Screaming "R" Day




~~~


I remember quite a bit about both years. The picture to the left is me in the CBOT's then newly opened Dow pit on 10/27/97 . The photo appeared in Time magazine the week after the '97 crash. Greenspan was the cover and I'm on the index page, pictured between Slick Willie and Hunter S. Thompson. biggrin.gif

There was also an interview with a guy I'd never before heard of. Jim Kramer.

'97 was just a one day deal. A more volatile Feb. 27th. All off Asia. And Niederhoffer, lol. In fact another trader who'd been a subjet in the first Market Wizard's book sold into the subsequent rally, kept adding and lost millions.

'98 was more like today. The bad news about LTCM, Russia, Asia, Impeachment and Treasury spreads went on for months. It all ended with the biggest bang I'd ever seen. Around 2:30 on October 15 the Fed cut by 25bp. Dow futures rallied 500pts into the close. It wasn't until the trading days following 9/11 (almost 3 years) that the market saw those prices again!!!!


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Anyone can elaborate on 1997-1998 to now? The financial crisis similarities?



VIX high 37.50 +/-, 2002 or 1997 de ja vu when market rallied 60% after making the bottom at 730 then rallied to 1170.

Then, another VIX spike in 1998.


http://www.stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$VIX&p=D&st=1990-01-01&i=p25033596000&a=78540888&r=423.png
http://www.stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$VIX&p=D&yr=0&mn=9&dy=0&i=p09459437929&a=81415468&r=154.png

Edited by Trend-Signals, 17 August 2007 - 04:04 PM.

[Trend-Signals]

The Fed intervention was absolutely necessary to save extremely deteriorating sentiment because of hyped public sentiment - I called this as "Subprime Drama". Before the Fed intervention, we had high risk of Market Crash with very high speculative short positions for anticipated crash. If the Fed didn't intervene, it was likely. Note: I am not inviting "Debate" since this is my view. Markets are trading at critical ST/IT/LT pivotal supports with high risk of recession because of fast deteriorating public and market sentiment. We need to see "Continued Support" to mitigate the recent, fast deteriorated market and public sentiment to save from quickly going into recession because highly publicized subprime issue. "Mother of All Squeeze" is a good way to get out of the Subprime Mess since the market performance affects sentiment. No need to scare off .... anymore than as we have seen since those who took high risk is now falling out. Sentiment can change FAST and VOLATILITY does not mean DOWN-side only.

Edited by Trend-Signals, 17 August 2007 - 04:30 PM.

[Trend-Signals]

The VOLUMES are high, 2.6m/2.4m. We, again, had climactic volumes yesterday with 3.3M.

No need for climactic up-volumes.

http://www.stockchar...00102&r=822.png
http://www.stockchar...00102&r=822.png
http://www.stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&i=p28661478751&a=91400102&r=822.pnghttp://www.stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$COMPQ&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&i=p28661478751&a=91400102&r=822.png
http://www.stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$INDU&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&i=p28661478751&a=91400102&r=822.pnghttp://www.stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$OEX&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&i=p28661478751&a=91400102&r=822.png
http://www.stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$MID&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&i=p28661478751&a=91400102&r=822.pnghttp://www.stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SML&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&i=p28661478751&a=91400102&r=822.png
http://www.stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$NYA&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&i=p28661478751&a=91400102&r=822.pnghttp://www.stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=XLE&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&i=p28661478751&a=91400102&r=822.png