17 replies to this topic

[Tor]

Odd favour the upside looking at the charts. The lows are likely already IN. I changed my views becasue I dont think I have been thinking clearly recently. I think I got caught up in the sell off and now have had a chance to reflect my views on this. As many will know I have been rampantly bullish, but was loooking for this correction to last longer. I plan to be trading the long side probably from now to the endof the year.

[traderpaul]

What makes you think the low is in?..... Remember Greenie lowered the rates?..... Out of all the excitement I lost count....Was there 10 or 13 times.....The market kept on going down.....Do you feel lucky?..... Well, do you?

[Tor]

Tp, For me, I have to admit this is probably the most interest point in the stock market in my whole career or 15 years. I think the weight of evidence goes to the upside. Putting aside technicals, which we all see and know here. The equity pool is shrinking. Hedge funds as an asset class are less attractive. Policy has responded early, and quickly. Expect more to come. I find it difficult to accept a repeat of Nov 2001, post tech bubble. Liquidity and money supply strong. Downside protection is high. What other assets are there to buy? Bonds? not really. Hedge? What are you buying is the question and people are sceptical now. Commodities? Maybe a bit long in the tooth??? housing? No way. Cash? Possibly. Equities compete with cash, but I dont think we are there in terms of consumer preferences. What exactly is out there? A credit crunch based on sub prime lending spreading? I have heard of a few funds losing a lot of money and closing shop, but that is a rich mans issue. Does the mainstream consumer remain in tact? For the moment it seems so to me.

[ogm]

Don't forget all that money that was flowing into now illiquid CDO's. On the other hand large cap liquid stocks don't look particulary expensive here. Overall stocks as an asset class are underrated here.

[Tor]

Don't forget all that money that was flowing into now illiquid CDO's.

On the other hand large cap liquid stocks don't look particulary expensive here.

Overall stocks as an asset class are underrated here.

OGM and TP. I think I am gonna look a fool - I scrap my FF again, as i have re looked. I cant read this market. I have no idea now if the lows are in or not.

I still keep my overall bullish scenario, but this market can do anything now. if lows are taken out then panic will come in. If the downtrend line its take out, then maybe we melt up.

I dont think this is a protracted bear market and I personally dont see a repeat of 2000 etc.

i apologise for my confusing posts and chnging of mind!!!

[JAP]

Odd favour the upside looking at the charts.

The lows are likely already IN.

I changed my views becasue I dont think I have been thinking clearly recently. I think I got caught up in the sell off and now have had a chance to reflect my views on this.

As many will know I have been rampantly bullish, but was loooking for this correction to last longer.

I plan to be trading the long side probably from now to the endof the year.

So you're 100% long now?

[traderpaul]

Guys, I stay bearish.....Here is the reason why.....Charts

[Tor]

Guys, I stay bearish.....Here is the reason why.....Charts

Those stocks aheve been going down for over 2 years now. looked like some capitulation and the obv turing up. Maybe too early? I dont know just what i see and i see the trend is still down generally.

if the market keeps going down and credit worries persist, i am thinking we could see a quicker response from the fed. i guess that is part of my core money ss/liquidity viewpoint.

[traderpaul]

Look at those charts again.....Change the duration to 1 year.....Note they peaked out before this maket peaked....With the massive rally we had, those guys hardly moved....Why?

[Trend-Shifter]

Check out the shift the past 5 days....Dividend ETFs like DVY & PEY are outperforming the major indexes. Follow the shifting bond money if you want to be in stocks and be conservative.