I might be wrong, have been before, but I been right before, ....too.
CHECK SWING WAVES BOARD
Lots of good stuff over there right now and most of it is not mine.
mss
SPX - BOTTOM ?
Started by
mss
, Aug 18 2007 01:39 PM
3 replies to this topic
#1
mss
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I'M WATCHING
Posted 18 August 2007 - 01:39 PM
I might be wrong, have been before, but I been right before, ....too.
CHECK SWING WAVES BOARD
Lots of good stuff over there right now and most of it is not mine.
mss
WOMEN & CATS WILL DO AS THEY PLEASE, AND MEN & DOGS SHOULD GET USED TO THE IDEA.
A DOG ALWAYS OFFERS UNCONDITIONAL LOVE. CATS HAVE TO THINK ABOUT IT!!
A DOG ALWAYS OFFERS UNCONDITIONAL LOVE. CATS HAVE TO THINK ABOUT IT!!
#3
Alton
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Posted 19 August 2007 - 12:27 AM
Great charts and analysis Scott. It's especially instructive that the 34 BOP shows decline in both periods, but the 21 BOP diverged last year but has failed to do so this year.
I'm getting a "not yet" inkling from a different time and place.
The top slot in my momentum correlations has been taken over by 8-27-1990. This corresponds to one of the August periods mentioned in an earlier thread. The SPX declined into October that year with the Mideast a major player. Also we were in recession beginning in mid-July, although it wasn't confirmed by BLS until 1992. I am not committed to our current situation and market being like the comparable 1990 period. It's just one scenario of what might happen.
Despite this week's late lift-off, the projection from my somewhat unreliable R2 process has shifted to flat (albeit with a fair amount of variability) for the next few weeks. It was about 60% positive before. Don't know what will really happen. Again, I don't do the quants as a forecast...only to get an idea of what the possibilities are. It tends to diminish excess enthusiasm or pessimism (of which I have bunches
).
Steve - 8-19-07
It's especially instructive that the 34 BOP shows decline in both periods, but the 21 BOP diverged last year but has failed to do so this year.I'm getting a "not yet" inkling from a different time and place.
The top slot in my momentum correlations has been taken over by 8-27-1990. This corresponds to one of the August periods mentioned in an earlier thread. The SPX declined into October that year with the Mideast a major player. Also we were in recession beginning in mid-July, although it wasn't confirmed by BLS until 1992. I am not committed to our current situation and market being like the comparable 1990 period. It's just one scenario of what might happen.
Despite this week's late lift-off, the projection from my somewhat unreliable R2 process has shifted to flat (albeit with a fair amount of variability) for the next few weeks. It was about 60% positive before. Don't know what will really happen. Again, I don't do the quants as a forecast...only to get an idea of what the possibilities are. It tends to diminish excess enthusiasm or pessimism (of which I have bunches
). Steve - 8-19-07
#4
dasein
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Posted 19 August 2007 - 05:08 AM
ditto---Nice work!
simplistic, but, stockcharts PNF shows 1290 as the bear target.
klh
best,
klh
klh
