6 replies to this topic

[A-ha]

it will likely be different this time...

Some backing and filling , maybe much lower prices like SPX 1320 but I think SPX will eventually go through 1560 to new all time highs


I dont know what the f^%&& happened to me but I feel quite bullish since I bot the ******** out of everything right at the bottom last week

Edited by A-ha, 18 August 2007 - 02:15 PM.

[Trend-Signals]

It's 1997! Can someone hear me???


CLIMACTIC VOLUMES: All about VOLUMES...

Climactic action on 8/16/2007 = Climactic action on 10/28/1997 with extremely high volume and the same VIX level to 37.

Conversely, after you study 1998 climactic volume reversal action, you will see: "Its 1997"!


Charts:
http://investorshub....age_id=22181738
http://www.traders-t...showtopic=75006

~~~

1997 Price Action Pattern:


I commented on VIX breakout in Jun-Jul 2006 bottom call that market is showing similar pattern of 1995.

The current price pattern shows that we are in 1997 pattern when market corrected 10% after a correction of 7%+/- which is Jun-Jul 2006 low.


In 1997, we didn't have a retest of the low after similar "W" formation with lower/low with 10 %+/- correction which is the VIX level 37 which we have seen. After 1997 10% correction, market rallied 60% before 1998 correction of 20%.

In 1998, after 1997 bottom followed by a rally to 60%, we had 20% +/- correction with higher VIX level to 47.

Edited by Trend-Signals, 18 August 2007 - 02:33 PM.

[A-ha]

ok I hear yaaa, you like climaxes... me too. in fact my greatest maneuvers happened in climaxes. I am a climax man by definition.

Edited by A-ha, 18 August 2007 - 03:09 PM.

[underabigw]

Atilla,

Do you have any thoughts on the high level of equity put/call ratio or the lower levels of the index put/call ratios?

And, did the 9 to 1 up volume ratio on Friday signal a strong rally from here like it did in Feb/March or has enough damage been done that we can still go down from here?. We had some 9 to 1 down volume days recently so I'm not sure which is the most important, 9 to 1 up or 9 to 1 down?

Thanks.

it will likely be different this time...

Some backing and filling , maybe much lower prices like SPX 1320 but I think SPX will eventually go through 1560 to new all time highs


I dont know what the f^%&& happened to me but I feel quite bullish since I bot the ******** out of everything right at the bottom last week

[Trend-Signals]

ok I hear yaaa, you like climaxes... me too. in fact my greatest maneuvers happened in climaxes. I am a climax man by definition.

huh? xD I think that many are missing the points...






relax_DK made good points:

~~~





teresting points

Yes, it is a good thing that we have the Fed or else many will have sleepless nights worrying about market crash or jump out the window after market crash.


Good points on the record level of export/import (backing up Buffett's bullish) and IMF raising US/Global growth.

~~~

http://www.ssyonline....html?view=2353
CHINESE STEEL OUTPUT 15-08-2007
China produced a near-record 41.25 Mt of steel in July, according to the latest data. Although this is short of the monthly all-time high of 41.5 Mt in June, the July total is up 14% on the same month last year. Meanwhile, China Daily reports that the country’s vehicle production reached 5.01 million units in the first seven months of the year, marking a year-on-year rise of almost 25%.



~~~

=================================================================

QUOTE(relax_dk @ Aug 18 2007, 03:08 PM) *

exactly this is not 1929

if i was short i would be thinking man is this really worth it - fed will mess my position up if the market drops more

and if this is about US and global growth i simply do not see the issue

go and look at www.drybulkindex.com and you will seerecord import and export levels of coal, iron ore, grain, steel etc.

and let's not forget that IMF some weeks ago revised up their estimates for US and global grwoth

the fact that all this happened from wednesday to next opex friday, makes me think this was once again a manipulated move that lost some control

which shows that the market after taking some hits in february and june was a bit weaker than previously

but we've all said what we wanted to say - let's see the action next week -

but if you were short I don't think you could sleep well knowing that Fed could mess you up at any point

all those stories mess me up - focus on the charts, which are still bullish IMO
enjoy the weekend trend-signals ;-


http://www.traders-t....p;#entry30951...

[A-ha]

Atilla,

Do you have any thoughts on the high level of equity put/call ratio or the lower levels of the index put/call ratios?

And, did the 9 to 1 up volume ratio on Friday signal a strong rally from here like it did in Feb/March or has enough damage been done that we can still go down from here?. We had some 9 to 1 down volume days recently so I'm not sure which is the most important, 9 to 1 up or 9 to 1 down?

Thanks.

I will try to put things in a perspective:

We had a selling climax

Selling climaxes occur on extremely oversold internals like 9:1 volume days and such

And all selling climaxes are followed by 9:1 up day(s) and/or very strong breath days

Thursday , around 1:00 pm ET, selling got exhausted too much. I saw there was no big selling pressure left on the big contract, that was the end of the washout . From that point buyers stepped in. The market rallied and test the days highs.

At that point test failed and later in the day, just like a text book example, the market attempted to test the lows. I say "text book example" because all climax bottoms are tested. Some of them make a lower low but on lower volume. Some make a higher low.

On the second test, the lows held because there was no volume in the move, selling dried


that point the market took off to test the highs again, eventually broke out and finished the day in positive.

It was a classic reversal pattern with 3.5 billion shares on Nasdaq composite


Upto this point it was exactly how I expected to be if you were reading my comments early in the week

next day, after Asian markets plunged overnite, Fed got scared and they announced the new discount rates before the market open.

In my opinion, it was not a necessary intervention but they got emotional after what they saw or heard on bubble tv.

Now I think this is what will happen from here on


The market will chop around here , maybe some selling next week, but all attempted tests will fail and the market will not see those lows in the next few weeks

We will eventually rally and do some upside testing

I do not have a target on the upside, we will have to see how the market goes there first.


Here is another climax indicator that nailed every single climax bottom in the last decade except 1998 which was a crash.

I dont think it will crash therefore I went fully long at the lows on Thursday and I will hold at least for a few weeks

[underabigw]

Atilla,

Thanks for your thoughtful perspective on what happened and what you see from here.

I always look forward to your posts.

Thanks again.

Atilla,

Do you have any thoughts on the high level of equity put/call ratio or the lower levels of the index put/call ratios?

And, did the 9 to 1 up volume ratio on Friday signal a strong rally from here like it did in Feb/March or has enough damage been done that we can still go down from here?. We had some 9 to 1 down volume days recently so I'm not sure which is the most important, 9 to 1 up or 9 to 1 down?

Thanks.

I will try to put things in a perspective:

We had a selling climax

Selling climaxes occur on extremely oversold internals like 9:1 volume days and such

And all selling climaxes are followed by 9:1 up day(s) and/or very strong breath days

Thursday , around 1:00 pm ET, selling got exhausted too much. I saw there was no big selling pressure left on the big contract, that was the end of the washout . From that point buyers stepped in. The market rallied and test the days highs.

At that point test failed and later in the day, just like a text book example, the market attempted to test the lows. I say "text book example" because all climax bottoms are tested. Some of them make a lower low but on lower volume. Some make a higher low.

On the second test, the lows held because there was no volume in the move, selling dried


that point the market took off to test the highs again, eventually broke out and finished the day in positive.

It was a classic reversal pattern with 3.5 billion shares on Nasdaq composite


Upto this point it was exactly how I expected to be if you were reading my comments early in the week

next day, after Asian markets plunged overnite, Fed got scared and they announced the new discount rates before the market open.

In my opinion, it was not a necessary intervention but they got emotional after what they saw or heard on bubble tv.

Now I think this is what will happen from here on


The market will chop around here , maybe some selling next week, but all attempted tests will fail and the market will not see those lows in the next few weeks

We will eventually rally and do some upside testing

I do not have a target on the upside, we will have to see how the market goes there first.


Here is another climax indicator that nailed every single climax bottom in the last decade except 1998 which was a crash.

I dont think it will crash therefore I went fully long at the lows on Thursday and I will hold at least for a few weeks