2 replies to this topic

[endisnear]

Hello All. Haven't posted in a while. Been a long term bear on econ but lately have been able to segregate my ego from the market and have had the best trades in my life in the last 2 mos or so. Been quietly lurking and watching the experts posts, but reading all. I tried to start this debate about a yr ago to no avail since the market was ripping nonstop since last Aug. Not suprisingly, Not much interest in BEAR talk when we are in a IT Bull. I posted my opinion on housing since I was a subprime mortgage loan officer repping about 35 cos. of which at least half or so are BK or not funding new loans. Once again, here are the givens: 1. Dollar is going down for the count although ST may go higher. 2. Middle East like it or not is not getting better. Oil LT goiing higher with Alt Energy gaining momentum but not enough to offst costs of Oil price appreciation. ? I think these FED injections will continue causing inflation. 3. Inflation...how long can the govt fudge the numbers. 4. We have seen only the tip of the iceberg on housing and Hedge fund debacle. Spells Middle Class DOOM IMO. MY ??? is : LT: if oil is going higher, dollar is going lower, commodities, food, going higher, (forget Iraq and Iran for now), Can this market keep appreciating in price? Weak dollar has been good for the mkt... Been trading for 8 yrs but never been so confused on the econ....hope this volatility continues....love it.??

[traderpaul]

There is a big drop in retail sales for the last two days.....First hand information.....Can someone in retail confirm this?.......The Sales ticket is only half of normal.....Then there is the China factor.....The interest they received from us is less than their inflation.....

[Cirrus]

Hello All. Haven't posted in a while. Been a long term bear on econ but lately have been able to segregate my ego from the market and have had the best trades in my life in the last 2 mos or so. Been quietly lurking and watching the experts posts, but reading all.

I tried to start this debate about a yr ago to no avail since the market was ripping nonstop since last Aug. Not suprisingly, Not much interest in BEAR talk when we are in a IT Bull. I posted my opinion on housing since I was a subprime mortgage loan officer repping about 35 cos. of which at least half or so are BK or not funding new loans.

Once again, here are the givens:
1. Dollar is going down for the count although ST may go higher.
2. Middle East like it or not is not getting better. Oil LT goiing higher with Alt Energy gaining momentum but not enough to offst costs of Oil price appreciation. ? I think these FED injections will continue causing inflation.
3. Inflation...how long can the govt fudge the numbers.
4. We have seen only the tip of the iceberg on housing and Hedge fund debacle. Spells Middle Class DOOM IMO.


MY ??? is :
LT: if oil is going higher, dollar is going lower, commodities, food, going higher, (forget Iraq and Iran for now), Can this market keep appreciating in price? Weak dollar has been good for the mkt...

Been trading for 8 yrs but never been so confused on the econ....hope this volatility continues....love it.??

This is similar to how I see the economy. I am probably not as gloomy, though. There's now way housing doesn't impact things much more than most think. There are plenty of unknowns/variables, though. We do not know how agressive the Fed, China and FCBs will be in either direction. Also, if the economy slows enough oil consumption will be impacted (finally) though I don't see the price closing in the 50's two weeks in a row...ever. Again, my tell is gold, silver and the XAU. After that it's crude and copper.