10 replies to this topic

[Sentient Being]

When you look at the past action for SPY or the S&P 500 we see that time and time again major corrections drop down to the 200 day averages, find support, and the "bull" continues. It sure seems that this is happening again. I've put a buy in for SPY just above Fridays high of the day. I think the S&P is working on putting in a serious bottom. I want to be long above the 200 day averages now. There will, of course, come the time when it's different. But as long as we find a bottom and go back above the averages it seems like a logical place to take a stand to me.

[emdee]

I am using SnP 1454-1461 as my line in the sand. The 1454 being the current 200 sma, and 1461 resistance from the Feb top. If it clears that band and holds, it should be good for another run at the top. M

[emkay]

Historically, the 21 MONTH SMA has been support for LONG TERM TRENDS and on thursday the SPX came within a whisker of its 21SMA which stood at 1367.25. IMHO, this level is the one to keep an eye on. If SPX holds above its 21M-SMA then this up trend will continue a lot longer. TWT rgds mani

Edited by emkay, 19 August 2007 - 06:50 PM.

[Caduceus]

Historically, the 21 MONTH SMA has been support for
LONG TERM TRENDS and on thursday the SPX came
within a whisker of its 21SMA which stood at 1367.25.
IMHO, this level is the one to keep an eye on. If SPX holds
above its 21M-SMA then this up trend will continue a
lot longer. TWT

rgds
mani

[attachment=5890:attachment]

Edit: FWIW, Gary Smith posted regarding 10%+ corrections on his blog today - http://garyscommonsense.blogspot.com/

Edited by Caduceus, 19 August 2007 - 08:08 PM.

[Echo]

Cacuceus,

That's a monthly version of the weekly one I posted quite a long time ago. Kind of cool to see it back.

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$RUT&p=W&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&i=p20136501668&a=79396474&r=8983.png

Echo

[Sentient Being]

Caduceus,

Thanks for the reply and link to Gary's blog. I

[Caduceus]

Echo, I couldn't remember who to credit. You posted it at the lows in 2006 to illustrate the major trend being intact... Thanks,

[Echo]

Caduceus, Is Gary Savage the same as Gary Smith??? Sounds like two different people to me. TIA Echo

[Caduceus]

Gary Savage is the same as Gary Smith. I think he just publishes under Smith for some reason.

[Echo]

Thanks and now for something totally different.

BP work that suggests that the majority of this damage is DONE.



http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$BPCOMPQ&p=W&st=1996-01-01&i=p37575849782&a=114839564&r=9288.png

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$BPNYA&p=W&st=1996-01-01&i=p35786041992&a=114839811&r=3366.png

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$BPSPX&p=W&st=1996-01-01&i=p25784610222&a=114839667&r=982.png

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$DJW&p=W&b=1&g=0&i=p37989022777&a=80251256&r=3630.png

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$NYAD&p=D&yr=10&mn=0&dy=0&i=p09089086733&a=79432897&r=4335.png



Now is this the place to be short? Think!

We have just dropped to long term support areas enough to register bull market oversold readings.

Unless you want to bet on a collapse here, what is the risk-reward for significant downside here compared to upside. I think the big boys know this. That is why the relative COT is bullish. Until there is convincing evidence that the long term trend has indeed changed, we ought to pay attention too. Now I'm not saying there couldn't be a retest or slightly lower low as in the past. But looking at history, sometimes there is NO retest. Just looking at the big picture.

Echo