3 replies to this topic

[tommyt]

we saw something today we have not seen in awhile...the VIX be down a bunch earlier when the market sold off..now even more on the rally...a sign that bigger downside was/ is not in the cards at the moment. Not that we are going to rip either, but probably mark time this week, and work off last Thurs/Fri stuff.

[hiker]

for this week's close on Friday, your guess for the approx. close? I assume from what you are saying about limited downside that you are basing trades on the assumption SPX closes above 1432 1476 1447 1432 1404 ?

[kaiser soze]

we saw something today we have not seen in awhile...the VIX be down a bunch earlier when the market sold off..now even more on the rally...a sign that bigger downside was/ is not in the cards at the moment. Not that we are going to rip either, but probably mark time this week, and work off last Thurs/Fri stuff.

I have a different read. Vix calls, which are very popular btw with the hedge fund crowd, expire tomorrow.

It is therefore in the boyz' interest to collapse the vix as much as possible before the end of tomorrow's session.

The real action, one way or another will begin after that.

[tommyt]

hiker...i don't really have a guess where it will close friday...I leave that to others..my mkt scenario for early this week was to "digest" the thurs/fri action, and be short premium for that...in a dow range of 13,200 and 12,850 closing, as breakout/breakdown points. These would make me change my opinion. We just had huge candles on mega volume, and I don't see that repeating for awhile. I expect another dive probably starting in Sept, where from depends on the next 2 weeks I guess. I also have select longs that I have been posting, definately not chasing anything. Good trading.