17 replies to this topic

[hiker]

ogm...would not failure here at R for XLF and SPY not call for a more significant pullback..say to SPX 1430 or below..IF the advance fails here? I agree this action toward R looks good so far. XLE and OIH not helping much here.

[hiker]

SPY...stop-gunning action above 145.81 is what I make of it so far..time will tell...

[ogm]

SPY...stop-gunning action above 145.81 is what I make of it so far..time will tell...

Overall I think we'll have plenty pull backs and rallies. I think we'll be in a range of some sort here for a while.

But so far 60 min momentum isn't rolling over, and MCO's look better and better with the improving A/D

Here is what MCO looks like as of this minute

Edited by ogm, 21 August 2007 - 11:36 AM.

[hiker]

one thing I am watching for sign of trend change is today follows 20 days of SPY price action which closed below the mid-line daily BB...will today be a repeat? my horizontal line in the sand at 145.81 is nearby the value of that mid-BB.

Edited by hiker, 21 August 2007 - 11:41 AM.

[ogm]

There is something I don't like, though... Equity put call is pretty low yesterday and today. I think there is a big down day coming. Gotta give bears some hope. More fear. COF news didn't do it, though.

[Sentient Being]

I'm long QQQQ from yesterday at 46.61. SPY buy is setting at 145.91, Just a penny above Fridays high, i think. Still hasn't hit. I also have a buy in a bank/savings/mortgage lender running and in the black (WM). So far so good. But year to date my trading stinks so we shall see. Iv'e been a great fade all year, better than any system you are following.

[hiker]

hi SB...just curious about the placement of your SPY buy stop so close to the daily downtrend line that resides above your buy stop price...since, so close, why not wait for a price move above the d/t line or do you think such a signal may be too late?

Edited by hiker, 21 August 2007 - 12:35 PM.

[Sentient Being]

hi SB...just curious about the placement of your SPY buy stop so close to the daily downtrend line that resides above your buy stop price...since, so close, why not wait for a price move above the d/t line or do you think such a signal may be too late?

I'm looking at a signal given off by another tool I have that is a combination of various broader market indicators. It would seem to indicate that a significant bottom is going in. It doesn't tell me when the bottom is complete or how deep, but time wise it's generally pretty close to a signficant bottom in terms of days to weeks, because of the combination of extremes that show up.

That signal came on 7-26. So at that point I felt a bottom of signficance was nearby. On 8-16 I think the bottoming process may have completed. By the way, isn't that a hammer or bullish spring or some such candle formation on 8-16? Now, I'm not rulling out a retest of that bottom.

I want to go long above the 200 day simple moving average, I think we have enough evidence that a bottom is possibly in, to take a swing at it. If the S&P can't get up above that 200 day average and above Fridays high then no worries as my buy wont hit.

Also, that buy stop is going to stay there. Lets say the S&P runs flat to down for a few more days, possibly retesting the low, then moves up. The trend line may at that point be UNDER the buy stop as a function of time passing. But for now, my line in the sand is the 200 day simple moving average and Fridays high as opposed to any downtrending restance line.

Edited by Sentient Being, 21 August 2007 - 02:39 PM.