11 replies to this topic

[Tor]

Chances are we head down to the 1360 zone before any bottom is put in. all these bottom pickers. Surely some damage has been done. Bulls/Bears not yet at IT lows yet. P/C haveroomfor more work to do. VIX should likely spike to 50 this time round.

[sjj]

This board's sentiment is decidedly bearish.

[Tor]

Would you say so? I just read bottom pickers here, bottom pickers there. It doesnt feel bearish to me, rather bullish. I see one or two crash posts but they arent taken seriously. Bottom line: the market is consolidsating below the 200 dma. lots of bottom pickers here. I hope it crosses above for them.

[ogm]

Would you say so? I just read bottom pickers here, bottom pickers there. It doesnt feel bearish to me, rather bullish.

I see one or two crash posts but they arent taken seriously.

Bottom line: the market is consolidsating below the 200 dma. lots of bottom pickers here. I hope it crosses above for them.

It doesn't feel Bearish to you ? Read your own posts...

Also take a look at position /opinion polls.

We've been grinding up for 4 days and opinion is always 40%+ bearish with full short position above 30%.

Barely any fully long, bulls are all very cautious, not fully commited, and bears are commited in force despite the grind.

Expectation is for another shoe to drop "any minute now"

Yes, P/C last 2 days is kinda low.. but the 10 day P/C is just coming off of near historic highs.

Mistrust, fear, conspiracy theories seem to be endless.

[Tor]

Would you say so? I just read bottom pickers here, bottom pickers there. It doesnt feel bearish to me, rather bullish.

I see one or two crash posts but they arent taken seriously.

Bottom line: the market is consolidsating below the 200 dma. lots of bottom pickers here. I hope it crosses above for them.

It doesn't feel Bearish to you ? Read your own posts...

Also take a look at position /opinion polls.

We've been grinding up for 4 days and opinion is always 40%+ bearish with full short position above 30%.

Barely any fully long, bulls are all very cautious, not fully commited, and bears are commited in force despite the grind.

Expectation is for another shoe to drop "any minute now"

Yes, P/C last 2 days is kinda low.. but the 10 day P/C is just coming off of near historic highs.

Mistrust, fear, conspiracy theories seem to be endless.

Maybe. I just would have expected more worry given what has been going on and how we have fallen. I just read about bottom pickers. This bull market is being seriously called into question, and yet I havent seen any posts addressing this point.

The MA's broken. Trenlines broken.The internals may to reverting to bear market ranges ie the high/low indices, and breadth numbers etc, rather than just being deeply oversold in bull market ranges.

I just would have expected more in this regard.

Best to you.

[cgnx]

OOOOzing with fear and trepidation. Perfect for a move back up to the 50 day avg. and then from there, you may be right. On the other hand, this may just be a typical pullback test of the 200 day moving avg. in which case, the booool is back in town. I'm an investor and own stock in either case. Stocks can always get cheaper.

[spielchekr]

The rally will be through once it stops being counter-intuitive. I don't see anything intuitive at this point.

[OEXCHAOS]

My read on sentiment: We have VERY excessive Bearishness in a number of sentiment sectors. Not all. Still, when you get a couple reliable measures and some bottom spotters at extreme levels it's a buy. The problem is, those were hit at the low. The WERE a buy. Now we're up. No man's land. The Fully Long/Fully Short ratio, however, is screaming Buy, so we're in a "constructive" area. That means we can go higher, but we can also fall a bit. The Bearishness should really climb on another down move, and THAT should set up a better rally. The take away, play it either way, but DON'T get too Bearish. I know how to play this one. I'm just waiting for the set up.

[humble1]

tor: good point on that 200 dma. under other conditions, it would not be SO important. the TIME we spend under it is important. lots of money watches this one. the 200 dma is plain vanilla t/a, yes, but with other indicators it is VERY valuable.

[89S10]

My read on sentiment: We have VERY excessive Bearishness in a number of sentiment sectors. Not all. Still, when you get a couple reliable measures and some bottom spotters at extreme levels it's a buy.

The problem is, those were hit at the low. The WERE a buy. Now we're up. No man's land.

The Fully Long/Fully Short ratio, however, is screaming Buy, so we're in a "constructive" area. That means we can go higher, but we can also fall a bit. The Bearishness should really climb on another down move, and THAT should set up a better rally. The take away, play it either way, but DON'T get too Bearish.

I know how to play this one. I'm just waiting for the set up.

Mark --- in playing this one, do you anticipate a buy or sell, or this undetermined now?