10 replies to this topic

[ogm]

TOL (22.47, +1.38, +6.5%) , the luxury home builder, reported a 85% drop in fiscal third-quarter profit - and still beat analyst expectations. It wasn't willing to give an estimate of current quarter profitability. Toll Brothers shares rose 4% in pre-open trading. Notice... dismal report... no guidance .... BUT..... they beat expectations ( I'm guessing expectations were for them to go BK soon) .... AND more importantly... the stock gaps up... To me that means.. washed out for the time being. That doesn't mean I would be buying homebuilders here.. but its a ST positive for the market.. as expectations got too low and the most dismal sector seems washed out.

Edited by ogm, 22 August 2007 - 09:34 AM.

[Drano]

We ain't seen nothin' yet. Wait till next quarter's results are in. Pulte is offering $70,000 off on some of their approx 300K homes in the midwest. They're in outlying locations. Good luck with that, PHM....

[Sentient Being]

Massachusetts (where I live) just reported an increase of sales over that of same month last year. Some speculation if the bottom for housing is in here.

[ogm]

As I said, I'm not making a call on the housing market here... just a general market observation and the washed out condition on homebuilder stocks... As in they aren't falling on bad news anymore. That said if interest rates are starting to come down, I don't see any reason why it shouldn't support the housing market. Interest rates are still way below average of the past 20 years or so. And income is rising at 6% annual clip lately. I posted a chart of Boston area housing futures a few days ago, and they aren't looking too bad. I live about 40 miles from Boston, and I'm moving, so I have my own house for sale... There is surprizingly a lot of buyer traffic. I have a showing every week. But people just seem to have no confidence. And yet they keep coming and coming. Buyers are there. Interest is there. There are 3 really problematic areas in the country.. Florida, San Diego/Southern California and Nevada... the rest isn't looking that bad.

[eminimee]

Ya just never know....maybe all the kings horse's and all king's men are putting HumptyDumpty back together again.

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$HGX&p=W&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&i=p10709718058&a=95450372&r=9311.png

[rkd80]

Massachusetts (where I live) just reported an increase of sales over that of same month last year. Some speculation if the bottom for housing is in here.

Hey Sentient,

I live in MA too. I am actually involved in a real estate investment and I cannot for the life of me figure out what the situation is. Everyone verbally agrees that the market has slowed down (brokers, buyers, sellers), but according to data and comparative analysis I just dont see it. The best I can determine is that last year we had about a 5-7% dip and now we have recovered it. It appears that at least our area (Middlesex county) is at it's highs or at least very very close to them.

What town you in?

Tea,

Wow Tp, pretty amazing display of Fib. retracements. The chart clearly shows that while HGX might have temp. bottomed its not out of the woods by a long shot.


ogm,

what town you live in? you moving out of MA? We sure got a lot of M@holes here.

Can you link that boston housing futures thing? never heard of it...

----

rkd

Edited by rkd80, 22 August 2007 - 11:10 AM.

[ogm]

I actually live in NH, on the very border with Mass.
So its GREATER Boston.. very greater

Here is the chart..

[rkd80]

lol ogm, that doesnt count! i live in the burbs 40 minute outside Boston, that to me is greater boston area you are not even in the right state!!

interesting chart, so what exactly is it? boston futures? each city is traded? i dont get it...

although the data i was looking at, is extremely similar to the chart. HMMM....

I actually live in NH, on the very border with Mass.
So its GREATER Boston.. very greater

Here is the chart..

[ogm]

http://www.investmen...d_in_the_us.htm

"CME Composite Housing Index Futures (CME Housing futures are cash-settled to a weighted composite index of U.S. real estate prices)"

Hey, I live 30-35 min from Boston.. so it is a Greater Boston Area Its closer to Boston then you , anyway...

Here is the Composite index, btw...

[Sentient Being]

RKD80. I live in the middle of the state. Along the route 91 corrider fairly close to the Vermont/New Hampshire line. Out in the woods! We just drove down to Boston last week and ate at the Charter house out on the pier. Took the T in from the AleWife stop (out at the end of route 2 near boston). We were going to take the duck tour but when we go there they were all booked solid for the rest of the day. Next time we will buy the tickets in advance. But still a nice visit to Boston. We built our house about 13 years ago and at this time I suppose it has a little more than doubled in value. I'm relucatant to post my exact location. I'm in the power industry and my wife is a nurse. So we live a good life out here where the cost of living is low. That's the trick, to have good jobs in a region where most don't have good jobs...then you live well enough! Another trick is to not risk too much in the stock market on your trading! Now if I could get that 200 million dollar mega lottery ticket to hit!