10 replies to this topic

[eminimee]

Personally I don't think it is....but it's more of a question of getting a higher low or lower low.
Just some chart thoughts.

OEX daily: My odd ball unorthodox fib setting....this morning will be big...you can see where I have confluence...if that holds...we should be heading south.





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NYMO 34ema. It's saying we have a bottom but more than likely the momo bottom...possible new low to follow.




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UP/Down volume....do we need the area where previous bottoms have happened? Note the possible kiss back to broken support going on.




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SPX weekly....SPX:VIX bottomed at the 03 breakout point....It may still need to test it again...




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BPSPX: kissback and do we need to test the March 03 low?





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XBD still bothers me where it is...if it can climb back on top of broken support it's a different story..but right now I still think it's a sitting duck




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[HoseB]

I believe the low is in. Even if there is another rasher of negative news, the market should mostly deflect it as "the Fed is on it".

A Tsunami of bad news might be another story...

[skunk]

T, Refer to the DOW corrective pattern of 5/10/06 - 7/18/06. I think we're repeating that pattern. TWT.

[mss]

Nice charts Mr. B, as is your talent.
Is the bottom in, maybe. IMO a couple of things need to happen to be confirmed at this point in time.
First we need to break above the upper blue TL. I think we will today and likely stall at the red lines, 1485ish, from there we should/might retest back to the upper blue TL. BUT, we could retest down to the lower TL also and if it does not hold ................. it is along loooooong way down.
VXO still needs to retract some more for me to feel good about anything except short term.



Comments more than welcome,
mss

[HoseB]

T,

Refer to the DOW corrective pattern of 5/10/06 - 7/18/06. I think we're repeating that pattern. TWT.

Lots of folks looking/hoping for this... reduces the odds of it occurring.

[skunk]

"Lots of folks looking/hoping for this... reduces the odds of it occurring." The more things change the more they remain the same

[eminimee]

The other real possible here....and I personally like it because of my oex:spx theory

A triangle.....very possible too...but I liken it to 1994 where we had a 10% correction and then triangled out into a DEC "E" wave low and then exploded.

On my longer term count....a triangle would be the (4) I have marked on there so where I have the (4) would only be "A" of a triangle.....If the longer term count has any merit to it at all....it would still suggest a test of these lows with a higher degree 4th wave later....but won't worry about that just yet.
If triangle...and shown on hourly here....we may be topping the first leg of a B wave.
All guess work...but not bad frame work to watch



http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=60&yr=0&mn=6&dy=10&i=p01887485676&a=104926928&r=4465.png

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=8&mn=0&dy=0&i=p98598037990&a=99807757&r=9119.png

[thespookyone]

Great charts, nice takes, as usual!

[hiker]

shorting SPY near 147.80 has upside risk to 148.10 to 148.50...not a bad risk/reward setup if trader thinks we head back down at some point. perhaps wait for move above 148 to short?

[dcengr]

Bear trap getting set up for the next 2 days, IMO. Then it'll run up for 3-4 days, and we should make lower closing lows, but not sure if it will make lower intraday lows. Sentiment still not at a stage where I can say wave 2 up has ended. I think the evidence will be that IF next 2 days are down, but equity p/c remains frothy, and the next 3-4 days equity p/c becomes even more frothy, then wave 2 up has ended.