2 replies to this topic

[Tor]

I have one so called elliott wave count for gold, which involves an a-b-c correction type move, from the may highs. We have since had a "b" up, and now potentially looking for a c down, to complete the correction. The target for the move is 550. I wanted to post a wave count observation, and would be interested to hear others views on the subject. Thanks.

[SilentOne]

hi Tor, There is nothing in the weekly gold chart that suggests gold will crash anytime soon. What is more likely is continued sideways price action and another possible test of the 50 week ema, which BTW has been steadfast support for gold since the bull market started in 2001. Until the 50 week ma is taken out on a multi week basis, there is nothing more to say wrt to gold. The trend is your friend which is up. The problem is silver right now. It is in a clear downtrend from the Feb. high and it has lost the 50 week ma support. What I want to see is how silver and the miners behave. They will be your big tell in this sector. If silver can't do something bullish in the next several weeks, then yes gold will likely roll over at some point. The other issue is that the HUI broke well below its 6 year trendline (log chart) in the last several weeks. That confirms a lengthy correction period off the the May 2006 high. A retest of the highs could come in the months ahead, and then another big low would probably follow. So I am not very enthusiastic on the sector, but that can change. I will be happy to look for the trades. cheers, john

[risktaker]

GLD broke the weekly up trendline from July 2005 by a tad or even did a kiss-back depending how the trendline is drawn. May 2006 looks like a EW3 top, Oct 2006 a EW4 bottom, April 2007 maybe an EW5 top. So GLD may now be in an ABC correction.