13 replies to this topic

[n83]

all drama no bite in selloff as in march just lots of drama and volatility..check the advance..hardly any pullbacks my theory is very simple..the market creates conditions (like predicting 9 of the last 5 recessions..something like that) to extract concessions it got that in '98 in '02 (work overtime but no rights on OT..can make folks work OT w/o giving OT..), tax cuts made permanent etc etc..now it gets rate cuts by pretending it to be bigger than what it is while giving a measly 10% after a lot of fanfare and reluctance (reluctance measured as in bounce forays into previous day candles..check the advance..where are the forays into prior day candles and how much and how many?)

[fib_1618]

check the advance..hardly any pullbacks

Yep...Newton's 3rd Law of motion.

As far as cycles are concerned, it's probably better to look for a price low (or nesting) in the projected time frame than to make historical comparisons on what should take place as every sequence of events is as unique as a snowflake.

Fib

[JAP]

Where's the volume?

[n83]

Where's the volume?

does not matter..has it mattered in this advance? the advance has taken place without it..translate it does not need/require it

[Vector]

in 1998 the Presidential and Longer Term cycles were up (aka in Slamma Jamma mode) in 2000-2002/3 they were all down (aka make bears happy mode) Now they are all back up again. That's what causes severely delayed topping action followed by swift and short-lived pullbacks. The recent "firedrill" is now over. Everyone can return to their cubicles, sorry for the inconvenience. Enjoy the weekend! Going to see Dickey Betts now. 5th row seats !

Edited by Vector, 24 August 2007 - 03:32 PM.

[airedale88]

all drama no bite in selloff as in march just lots of drama and volatility..check the advance..hardly any pullbacks



my theory is very simple..the market creates conditions (like predicting 9 of the last 5 recessions..something like that) to extract concessions

it got that in '98 in '02 (work overtime but no rights on OT..can make folks work OT w/o giving OT..), tax cuts made permanent etc etc..now it gets rate cuts by pretending it to be bigger than what it is while giving a measly 10% after a lot of fanfare and reluctance (reluctance measured as in bounce forays into previous day candles..check the advance..where are the forays into prior day candles and how much and how many?)

n83, do you often comment about methods of analysis (in this case Hurst's cycle analysis) that you know jack about? from reading some of your posts on different message boards you seem obsessed with my use and labeling of a 4.5 yr cycle. take it easy, you don't have to believe in it or use it.

[Vector]

as they say "ego and ignorance = arrogance" Airedale is one of the best cycle guys out there - he also has an amazing background. Everyone on this board should be very appreciative that he shares his knowledge skills and most of all his trading opinions here for FREE! Yes, for F R E E. He doesn't have to you know.

Edited by Vector, 24 August 2007 - 03:49 PM.

[n83]

there is a low every year i say the 4 yr lows are the ones that count most..they do not have to come every 48 mths..just every 4th year in the 4 yr sequence if this is a 4.5 yr cycle low then why was it so shallow? it translates to that those lows are not significant in relative scheme of things airedale is good very good..nothing to take away from that just that the 4 yr lows are much more significant

Edited by n83, 24 August 2007 - 03:52 PM.

[bln]

It may look shallow if you are not looking at the full picture. The fact is we got the most extreme readings of market internals in 5 years, the last time we did experience theses extreme levels was in July 2002. A true 4.5 year cycle low indeed.

[eminimee]

take a look at the 4.5 year cycle in 94....