5 replies to this topic

[spielchekr]

(Capitulated bears, that is)

There seems to be a consistent tendency to pull back once the initial lurch from a major bottom tags the 200,0.5 BB, so I flattened up EOD. Beware though, because the 11/1/05 pullback gave back only 1/2 of the prior day's stick. Something else I've noticed is that this tag was not accompanied by the usual $SPXA200 line being in its usual place above the half-way mark (250 issues). The last time this $SPXA200 underperformance occured was April 2003. Anyway, no telling how long we hang right here before a pullback... days, hours, or perhaps today's tag was all she wrote.



PS here we are in right shoulder territory, too

Edited by spielchekr, 24 August 2007 - 07:57 PM.

[spielchekr]

This compliments the previous chart, showing a cornucopia of + divergences to chew on.

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPXEW:$SPX&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&i=p02301793753&a=114946905&r=9802.png

Edited by spielchekr, 25 August 2007 - 08:50 AM.

[spielchekr]

Here's another reason I can see this as good place for pull back.

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&i=p81096513848&r=6414.png

Buying (and covering shorts) at the end of a 20ma rollunder day is a punishable offense, statistically speaking (analyze this). On the chart above, the 20ma is shown to reverse course (slope + or -) when closing price crosses the dotted line (the rollunder/rollover threshold).

On the other hand, there is a fly in this ointment, contrarianistically speaking. Poll

[spielchekr]

See?

[spielchekr]

I'm having 2nd thought about that chart that I was bullish about a week ago. At this current point where $SPX is challenging long term resistance with a right shoulder, price is well above the 200ma and yet virtually half of the issues are still below their 200ma's. All this while breaking above the 50ma with 55% of the issues still below their 50ma's. Not to mention the inverted contours of these averages and price actions, comparing 2003 and now. Something just doesn't look right.

Volume was withheld for tomorrow's gunfight, I think.

(Capitulated bears, that is)

There seems to be a consistent tendency to pull back once the initial lurch from a major bottom tags the 200,0.5 BB, so I flattened up EOD. Beware though, because the 11/1/05 pullback gave back only 1/2 of the prior day's stick. Something else I've noticed is that this tag was not accompanied by the usual $SPXA200 line being in its usual place above the half-way mark (250 issues). The last time this $SPXA200 underperformance occured was April 2003. Anyway, no telling how long we hang right here before a pullback... days, hours, or perhaps today's tag was all she wrote.



PS here we are in right shoulder territory, too

[spielchekr]

Glad to have rethought that out. Looking to buy between 1395 & 1415 next week.