6 replies to this topic

[Darris]

NYSE and Wilshire 5000 (total Market) MCO charts have new high points from the last surge in March 2007. The MCO on most other indexes shown at Decision Point look bullish as well and could produce new high points on Monday with more rally. SPX now up 110 pts in 6.5 trading days. Fast markets.

[LarryT]

NYSE and Wilshire 5000 (total Market) MCO charts have new high points from the last surge in March 2007. The MCO on most other indexes shown at Decision Point look bullish as well and could produce new high points on Monday with more rally. SPX now up 110 pts in 6.5 trading days. Fast markets.

You have to go back to May 2004 to find a higher momentum thrust in the NYSE McOsci.

[Woody]

Darris, yes as Fib points out the MCO Breadth Thrust suggests a challenge of July Highs is in the cards but first perhaps a scary but brief pullback is in the cards.....as others have indicated, 1485-1495 on Cash SPX looks like a nice place to have newly minted Bulls question their purchase

1) 50 dma
2) 61% Fib Retrace
3) Possible Symmetrical Channel Boundry
4) MCO is at a level where pullbacks do occur
5) 1484 is 2 std dev Envelope for 21 dma see chart below

I would not want to see the MCO get much below -10 and certainly not below the trendline abt -40, looks like some McSUMM Resistance about -600.....an area where a brief pullback is possible

Pullback may only get to the red 21 ema at 1455 shown on last chart, ideally would be a gift to pullback into the end of month to set up a buying opportunity

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$NYMO&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&i=p61562973867&a=115201189&r=953.png

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=D&b=3&g=0&i=p57846602498&a=115257742&r=8376.png

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=D&b=3&g=0&i=p37055775335&a=109713124&r=884.png

[thespookyone]

Woody, great charts, thanks. When I look at your last chart, it seems like since the upmove from March to June, that corrections have seemed to go to the next band lower. You mentioned that this pullback may only extend to the bottom of the 21 ema this time, and I'm wondering what you are factoring in that is giving you a sense that this pullback will be different-and stay within the current band?

[Woody]

Woody, great charts, thanks. When I look at your last chart, it seems like since the upmove from March to June, that corrections have seemed to go to the next band lower. You mentioned that this pullback may only extend to the bottom of the 21 ema this time, and I'm wondering what you are factoring in that is giving you a sense that this pullback will be different-and stay within the current band?

TSO, the truth, its guesswork.........if you look at the March pullback, once we kissed the upper Blue Band, we pulled back and held the red 21 dma......no reason to think it will be different this time as until proven otherwise, we are still in a bull mkt and these pullbacks should be bought particularly when you get the Breadth Thrust illustrated above and the positive divergences, throw in the negative sentiment, Airedale's 4.5Yr Cycle Low, very Bullish COT and it all points in one direction.......how you play it is another matter

[vitaminm]

SPX 5-15-60min-daily buy..........R@1530 Support 1@1475..2@1460...3@1380

[thespookyone]

Woody, thanks for your quick response, and your well made points. As for how I play it personally, I will VERY probably be buying the pullback, but will wait to do so till I'm satisfied a pullback has held. I won't worry about the small bit I lose waiting for what I consider confirmation, as I feel there will be a lot left on the table to the upside. Patience has paid a nice premium in this market, imho, and I don't want to alter my approach now. Risk reward plays the most important part in my trading strategy, and I guess my perception of risk at this point is somewhat higher than others, so I am trading more cautiously than I would normally. Again, points very well made, and I appreciate your sharing what you see!