12 replies to this topic

[Trend-Signals]

http://www.stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=60&yr=0&mn=2&dy=17&i=p12899819858&a=115287348&r=43.png

http://www.stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$INDU&p=D&yr=0&mn=10&dy=0&i=p51138394759&a=76966992&r=152.png

For entire EW count for bullish case, Teaparty can show it if he will since he is good at showing EW counts on his charts.


1997 Case


This is my comment on 1997 scenario posted on 8/18.

It does not mean that I am expecting market to perform exactly the same.

The analysis provides a guide as to what to expect as this is a form of Fractal Analysis.

http://investorshub....age_id=22365390

http://investorshub....p;txt2find=1997

Climactic action on 8/16/2007 = Climactic action on 10/28/1997 with extremely high volumes and the same VIX level to 37.


I commented on VIX breakout in Jun-Jul 2006 bottom call that market is showing similar pattern of 1995.

The current price pattern shows that we are in 1997 pattern when market corrected 10% after a correction of 7%+/- which is Jun-Jul 2006 low.

In 1997, we didn't have a retest of the low after similar "W" formation with lower/low with 10 %+/- correction which is the VIX level 37 which we have seen. After 1997 10% correction, market rallied 60% before 1998 correction of 20%.

In 1998, after 1997 bottom followed by a rally to 60%, we had 20% +/- correction with higher VIX level to 47.

http://www.stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=W&yr=1&mn=9&dy=0&i=p59901339372&a=115074573&r=61.png

http://www.www.stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SSEC&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&i=p02439948996&a=66381250&r=667.png

http://www.stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=W&st=1997-01-22&en=1998-03-31&i=p44642518991&a=115071776&r=732.png


~~~

Bradley's

It seems that many are looking for ST top, as one of reasons, because it is Bradley's turn date during the next week on 8/26. I think that Bears would be dreaming of the chart trading as a ST top to make new low as the chart "VISUALLY SUGGESTS".

Turning to upside as Bullish case indicates breaking above 1500 would trigger Shorts to be surprised, again.


The bullish turn date would be "Breaking above resistance" SPX

I don't use astro trading method. The chart does not show 7/19 top, btw.

After the recent run up, I am looking for a consolidation during the next week with SPX 1450 +/- Support and will reassess.






Andy's chart



~~~


As noted earlier, I built my case for "No Retest of the low". You will see my comment on my previous posts.

I just noticed a post on Swindlin.

Swindlin is building bearish case.

http://investorshub....age_id=22364914

However, as you can see:

http://www.financial...enlin/main.html

On his 7/6/07 analysis: Market overshot his projection of 20 week low as he is showing on his second chart showing 1487 +/- to hold for 20 low. I may misinterpret his position since I have not read his post carefully.

On my previous posts, I commented that Mar 2007 low was the 9mo low and am looking for Sept/Oct low for 9mo low; however, markets have traded in higher volatility; therefore, I believe that the low has come early.

Also, I commented 1997 scenario which is showing "double" bottom; however, for ST trading, I do not believe that we have ST top.


Going back to Swindlin's 8/24 article:

http://www.financial.../2007/0706.html

The formation of 1-2-3 and 1-2 does not reflect the same velocity of market momentum.

Using his indicator, we already have positive divergences on 1-2 compared to the 1-2-3 P.D. in Mar07.

Furthermore, I commented that the recent market correction is a fractal of Jun-Jul 2006 correction than Mar 2007 correction if we are to compare the 7/19-8/16 correction to those two, i.e. Jun-Jul 2006 and Mar 2007, since we are coming off from major weekly lows with positive divergences as commented on my breadth analysis; and now breadth actions are confirming price actions.




In conclusion: I do not believe that we have ST top, nor we will retest the bottom as noted on my previous comments with various analysis supporting my view; however, a 1997 formation with higher low before potential break above SPX 1550 which is my LT view since Jun-Jul 2006 bottom call and which I noted before 7/19 top call. The current correction didn't negate the view as the correction was consistent as expected even though it was in higher volatility in shorter timeframe.

I expect SPX 1450 +/- to hold and reassess.

















http://www.stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=60&yr=0&mn=2&dy=17&i=p12899819858&a=115287348&r=43.png

http://www.stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$INDU&p=D&yr=0&mn=10&dy=0&i=p51138394759&a=76966992&r=152.png

For entire EW count for bullish case, Teaparty can show it if he will since he is good at showing EW counts on his charts.


1997 Case


This is my comment on 1997 scenario posted on 8/18.

It does not mean that I am expecting market to perform exactly the same.

The analysis provides a guide as to what to expect as this is a form of Fractal Analysis.

http://investorshub....age_id=22365390

http://investorshub....p;txt2find=1997

Climactic action on 8/16/2007 = Climactic action on 10/28/1997 with extremely high volumes and the same VIX level to 37.


I commented on VIX breakout in Jun-Jul 2006 bottom call that market is showing similar pattern of 1995.

The current price pattern shows that we are in 1997 pattern when market corrected 10% after a correction of 7%+/- which is Jun-Jul 2006 low.

In 1997, we didn't have a retest of the low after similar "W" formation with lower/low with 10 %+/- correction which is the VIX level 37 which we have seen. After 1997 10% correction, market rallied 60% before 1998 correction of 20%.

In 1998, after 1997 bottom followed by a rally to 60%, we had 20% +/- correction with higher VIX level to 47.

http://www.stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=W&yr=1&mn=9&dy=0&i=p59901339372&a=115074573&r=61.png

http://www.www.stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SSEC&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&i=p02439948996&a=66381250&r=667.png

http://www.stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=W&st=1997-01-22&en=1998-03-31&i=p44642518991&a=115071776&r=732.png


~~~

Bradley's

It seems that many are looking for ST top, as one of reasons, because it is Bradley's turn date during the next week on 8/26. I think that Bears would be dreaming of the chart trading as a ST top to make new low as the chart "VISUALLY SUGGESTS".

Turning to upside as Bullish case indicates breaking above 1500 would trigger Shorts to be surprised, again.


The bullish turn date would be "Breaking above resistance" SPX

I don't use astro trading method. The chart does not show 7/19 top, btw.

After the recent run up, I am looking for a consolidation during the next week with SPX 1450 +/- Support and will reassess.






Andy's chart



~~~


As noted earlier, I built my case for "No Retest of the low". You will see my comment on my previous posts.

I just noticed a post on Swindlin.

Swindlin is building bearish case.

http://investorshub....age_id=22364914

However, as you can see:

http://www.financial...enlin/main.html

On his 7/6/07 analysis: Market overshot his projection of 20 week low as he is showing on his second chart showing 1487 +/- to hold for 20 low. I may misinterpret his position since I have not read his post carefully.

On my previous posts, I commented that Mar 2007 low was the 9mo low and am looking for Sept/Oct low for 9mo low; however, markets have traded in higher volatility; therefore, I believe that the low has come early.

Also, I commented 1997 scenario which is showing "double" bottom; however, for ST trading, I do not believe that we have ST top.


Going back to Swindlin's 8/24 article:

http://www.financial.../2007/0706.html

The formation of 1-2-3 and 1-2 does not reflect the same velocity of market momentum.

Using his indicator, we already have positive divergences on 1-2 compared to the 1-2-3 P.D. in Mar07.

Furthermore, I commented that the recent market correction is a fractal of Jun-Jul 2006 correction than Mar 2007 correction if we are to compare the 7/19-8/16 correction to those two, i.e. Jun-Jul 2006 and Mar 2007, since we are coming off from major weekly lows with positive divergences as commented on my breadth analysis; and now breadth actions are confirming price actions.




In conclusion: I do not believe that we have ST top, nor we will retest the bottom as noted on my previous comments with various analysis supporting my view; however, a 1997 formation with higher low before potential break above SPX 1550 which is my LT view since Jun-Jul 2006 bottom call and which I noted before 7/19 top call. The current correction didn't negate the view as the correction was consistent as expected even though it was in higher volatility in shorter timeframe.

I expect SPX 1450 +/- to hold and reassess.







http://www.stockchar...09398&r=568.png
http://www.stockchar...77535&r=859.png
http://www.stockchar...31079&r=210.png
http://www.stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=60&yr=0&mn=2&dy=17&i=p98670794592&a=79285156&r=938.png
http://www.stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=9&dy=0&i=p22232131775&a=76929034&r=724.png
http://www.stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=W&yr=4&mn=8&dy=0&i=p49229126946&a=78987374&r=825.png
http://www.stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$INDU&p=D&yr=0&mn=10&dy=0&i=p31631774778&a=76966992&r=329.png
http://www.stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$INDU&p=W&yr=4&mn=7&dy=0&i=p06542340040&a=76929550&r=152.png
http://www.stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$COMPQ&p=D&yr=0&mn=8&dy=0&i=p21609042622&a=76909044&r=764.png
http://www.stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$COMPQ&p=W&yr=4&mn=6&dy=0&i=p22094758617&a=77295648&r=443.png

[Trend-Signals]

2007 & 1987 COMPARISON: THE KEY IS VOLUME ACTION AND ANTICIPATION OF THE CRASH:


This is an interesting comparison since the anticipation for 1987 or 1929 crash was in progress during the recent correction.

Note the "CLIMATIC VOLUMES" 10/19 - 20, 1987 which is showing the similar climactic volume action on 8/16. However we had higher volumes going into 8/16/07 which is comparable to 10/19-20/87 volumes.

However, we had higher volumes going into 8/16/07 since many were already expecting a crash while 1987 was not.


Because of the fear, the shorts could further fuel the market.


~~~~


quote name='Rogerdodger' post='311091' date='Aug 25 2007, 04:43 PM'
Just for fun:
Looks like the SPX needs to get back above the 50ma and the August high (1500+) to keep the comparison going.
We have already penetrated the 200 and crossed back up.
But that did not happen in 1987 until the crash.

[Woody]

Trend Signals nice analysis and certainly much effort and thought..appreciated, please note spelling of Carl's name on Decision Point..."Swenlin" Also, I'm no Astro guy but interesting that Aug 28 is a Total Lunar Eclipse. Thanks CW

[n83]

only thing..i do not think folks here treat Bradley's as a price-time chart kind of relationship that one can trade..and to get a turn AND a local low all within 1 day is unreal (i do not think anyone here expects that either)

anyway it also always seems the longs never get 'surprised' only shorts...who knows que sera sera

agree with 1450 support level..yes

"Bradley's

It seems that many are looking for ST top, as one of reasons, because it is Bradley's turn date during the next week on 8/26. I think that Bears would be dreaming of the chart trading as a ST top to make new low as the chart "VISUALLY SUGGESTS".

Turning to upside as Bullish case indicates breaking above 1500 would trigger Shorts to be surprised, again.


The bullish turn date would be "Breaking above resistance" SPX

I don't use astro trading method. The chart does not show 7/19 top, btw.

After the recent run up, I am looking for a consolidation during the next week with SPX 1450 +/- Support and will reassess."

Edited by n83, 26 August 2007 - 08:36 AM.

[Trend-Signals]

Trend Signals nice analysis and certainly much effort and thought..appreciated, please note spelling of Carl's name on Decision Point..."Swenlin"

Also, I'm no Astro guy but interesting that Aug 28 is a Total Lunar Eclipse.


Thanks

CW

Hi Woody, thanks for letting me know about the spelling and Total Lunar Eclipse. It is a good thing that I didn't spell as "Sweating"....

What do you think about The Total Lunar Eclipse? It sounds like market will do something like lunatic things such as extremely high volatility?

By the way, are you the "Woody" of Woody CCI?


~~~

$WTIC is showing positive divergence, but closed at TL resistance, while $TRAN closed above DTL resistance on closing basis. Oil will likely break above the resistance shown on the chart.

I saw a-ha's $TRAN chart, trendlines are often "Beauty in the eyes of beholder".

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$WTIC&p=D&yr=0&mn=10&dy=0&i=p63599519127&a=80157012&r=928.png

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$TRAN&p=W&yr=4&mn=5&dy=0&i=p55623433067&a=114812405&r=688.png














Hi Woody, Thank you for your kind words ...

[eminimee]

This is what I'm thinking....short term...I think the low is in...and it depends on how we make a new high...basically straight up from here with the normal pull backs in a 5 wave advance....or we chop around in a triangle still trying to finish (4). If the count has any merit...we will make a new high and then correct down to the lows we have just seen...from a top from around 1610 down to 1360ish...that would be a 15/16% correction. If we blast through a number I have on OEX of 747...we won't be making that late year correction...we will be in a blast up....with all time highs on oex next stop.



All speculation of course.



[bleeeep]...I just erased my chart with the full count on it.....don't have time to redo it right now....this might give an idea...this is the tri.....I'll post full count later when I have a chance to work on it...

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=8&mn=0&dy=0&i=p98598037990&a=99807757&r=906.png

[Trend-Signals]

This is what I'm thinking....short term...I think the low is in...and it depends on how we make a new high...basically straight up from here with the normal pull backs in a 5 wave advance....or we chop around in a triangle still trying to finish (4). If the count has any merit...we will make a new high and then correct down to the lows we have just seen...from a top from around 1610 down to 1360ish...that would be a 15/16% correction. If we blast through a number I have on OEX of 747...we won't be making that late year correction...we will be in a blast up....with all time highs on oex next stop.

Hi Teapary,

Thanks for the chart.

The Bullish Count is what I am thinking:

from Oct 2002 to Mar 2004 ==> Wave 1
from Mar 2004 to Aug 2004 ==> Wave 2
from Aug 2004 to Jul 2007 ==> Wave 3
from Jul 2007 to Aug 2007 ==> Wave 4
from Aug 2007 to ===> Wave 5

Since my view is LT Bullish breaking above SPX 1550 since Jun-Jul 2006, the bullish count is consistent with the SPX breakout scenario.



http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=W&yr=6&mn=0&dy=0&i=p62175195357&a=114812402&r=683.png

[eminimee]

found a copy ...but a few days old....I'll have to make a new chart

[Trend-Signals]

found a copy ...but a few days old....I'll have to make a new chart

Thank you, Teaparty

Did you post your VLT EW bullish count which is showing the chart above in VLT timeframe?







On your previous posts, if so, could you post the link?

TIA

[eminimee]

I did..but don't have the link ...can't remember when i posted it last time.