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[humble1]

i know this will not matter to the entrenched wall-of-worry bulls and i am not trying to convince them. those who know and respect market history might remember penn central and the sudden collapse and the effect on the market. it was scary at the time but over pretty quickly. what we have here is the possibility of many penn centrals, small and large, with the commercial paper freeze only one part of a much wider and deeper canyon. as more economists, respectable ones, start talking about a one third or higher chance of a recession, the sensibility of investors not wanting to refinance companies which may be affected (and there are many) is not such a stretch. they are starting to realize that this is not just a market event. of course, those ALREADY owning the paper are locked in and their money no longer flows though the system. the sun-times is a very small amount, relatively, but how big was that austrian bank in the 1920's and how important was the thai baht to currencies a decade ago ? little critters can awaken us to a no-clothes-emperor very easily.

Edited by humble1, 27 August 2007 - 06:30 AM.