17 replies to this topic

[Bob-C]

Hi everyone, see the following article on "911-style" Crash Put Options

Good luck to everyone on all of your trades.

Bob-C

[pedro]

Hi everyone, see the following article on "911-style" Crash Put Options

Good luck to everyone on all of your trades.

Bob-C

Only one problem with this ... what was purchased were deep in the money calls on SPX ... see my post over last weekend.

[Bob-C]

Hi everyone, see the following article on "911-style" Crash Put Options

Good luck to everyone on all of your trades.

Bob-C

Only one problem with this ... what was purchased were deep in the money calls on SPX ... see my post over last weekend.

The article from prisonplanet.com by Joseph Paul Watson stated:

Market Crash Forecast Suggests New 9/11
Mystery trader bets on huge downturn that could only be preceded by catastrophe

Prison Planet | August 27, 2007
Paul Joseph Watson

A mystery trader risks losing around $1 billion dollars after placing 245,000 put options on the Dow Jones Eurostoxx 50 index, leading many analysts to speculate that a stock market crash preceded by a new 9/11 style catastrophe could take place within the next month.

The article referred to puts that were bought on the Dow Jones Eurostoxx 50 Index not to in-the-money calls bought on the SPYs. Both the alleged purchase of the SPY calls and the Eurostoxx puts make the situation even more urgent and alarming and worthy of attention.

Cheers,

Bob-C

[Sentient Being]

Is the bottom line here that someone with a very deep pocket is making a bet and we should pay attention to deep pockets that make such bets? I'm just trying to get my thinking straight here, Bob. I hope they are wrong, and we've seen order mistakes in the past I'm wondering if that's possible here? In any case, it's interesting. Someone or some group of someones so convinced that we are going down massively that they are putting huge money behind it.

[HiFiGuy]

The article from prisonplanet.com by Joseph Paul Watson stated:

Market Crash Forecast Suggests New 9/11
Mystery trader bets on huge downturn that could only be preceded by catastrophe

Prison Planet | August 27, 2007
Paul Joseph Watson

A mystery trader risks losing around $1 billion dollars after placing 245,000 put options on the Dow Jones Eurostoxx 50 index, leading many analysts to speculate that a stock market crash preceded by a new 9/11 style catastrophe could take place within the next month.

The article referred to puts that were bought on the Dow Jones Eurostoxx 50 Index not to in-the-money calls bought on the SPYs. Both the alleged purchase of the SPY calls and the Eurostoxx puts make the situation even more urgent and alarming and worthy of attention.

Cheers,

Bob-C

Prisonplanet.com? What kind of stuff are you reading, Bob-C? (see my signature)

[selecto]

That is insufficient information. Before one can say it is a "bet" (which I doubt) you have to be sure that the trades were not part of a larger strategy.

[Bob-C]

Is the bottom line here that someone with a very deep pocket is making a bet and we should pay attention to deep pockets that make such bets?

I'm just trying to get my thinking straight here, Bob.

I hope they are wrong, and we've seen order mistakes in the past I'm wondering if that's possible here? In any case, it's interesting. Someone or some group of someones so convinced that we are going down massively that they are putting huge money behind it.

Hi Sentient Being, good to hear from you. Take a look at the volume on the two sets of calls traded on the SPYs today; there were two sets of 6 strike prices where exactly 10.000 calls were traded at each of the strike prices (60 through 85 and 90 through 95 strike prices). Some person or group of persons placed a very large bet. IMHO, there will be a plethora of shoes to drop regarding the home builders, mortgage lenders, banks such as C, JPM, and BAC among others. The NASDAQ and NYSE daily and weekly NHs and NLs are wretched and the NYSE and NASDAQ market infrustructure continues to deteriorate. Bottom line LOB!!! in September and/or October!

Good luck on your trades.

Best,

Bob-C

Edited by Bob-C, 27 August 2007 - 05:37 PM.

[Bob-C]

The article from prisonplanet.com by Joseph Paul Watson stated:

Market Crash Forecast Suggests New 9/11
Mystery trader bets on huge downturn that could only be preceded by catastrophe

Prison Planet | August 27, 2007
Paul Joseph Watson

A mystery trader risks losing around $1 billion dollars after placing 245,000 put options on the Dow Jones Eurostoxx 50 index, leading many analysts to speculate that a stock market crash preceded by a new 9/11 style catastrophe could take place within the next month.

The article referred to puts that were bought on the Dow Jones Eurostoxx 50 Index not to in-the-money calls bought on the SPYs. Both the alleged purchase of the SPY calls and the Eurostoxx puts make the situation even more urgent and alarming and worthy of attention.

Cheers,

Bob-C

Prisonplanet.com? What kind of stuff are you reading, Bob-C? (see my signature)

Hi HiFiGuy, nice to hear from you. Thanks for the excellent links in your signature. Today's close was wretched with very negative implications for the market! LOB!!! The RUT lost 9, SOX lost 8, the NYA lost 78, the TRAN lost 49, the UTIL lost 16, the NHs were still very low on the NYSE and the NASDAQ, and the declines far outpaced the advances on the NYSE and the NASDAQ.

Good luck on your trades,

Cheers,

Bob

Edited by Bob-C, 27 August 2007 - 06:14 PM.

[Citation]

Is this source reliable? There are all kinds of rumors floating around, most of which are completely bogus.

[kaiser soze]

Thanks bob-C for bringing this to our attention. The Eurostoxx puts are newsworthy but interpretation can be tricky.

Those who bought huge lots of Eurostoxx puts in early June definitely knew something and probably made out handsomely by mid August.

Two scenarios :

Scenario A : TAPE PAINTING ala Michael Meehan in the 1920's only in reverse this time. For those who are not into market history, Michael Meehan was pool operator/specialist trading in RCA stocks and manipulated it to perfection. Once Meehan and his buddies had accumulated huge positions in RCA stock, they traded huge blocks of stock among themselves for substantially elevated prices. When the higher price along with the huge block trade went out on the ticker, people were convinced that strong accumulation was taking place-so they bought in-only to be distributed to.

For those who bought the Eurostoxx puts, there has got to be a counter party who was a buyer. Today, options are monitored closely by a number of services for information. So, selling hysteria can be induced by a few big players exchanging these options among themselves. A canard basically.

Scenario B : The Put option purchases are to be taken at face value. Someone with superior information is acting on this piece of information.

Scenario A will result in the market galloping higher on a new wave of short-selling and put buying while scenario B will see the market dropping a lot.

If one places any credence at all in either, the safe trade is to buy an ATM straddle or strangle.