4 replies to this topic

[SemiBizz]

This is why I don't trade these thin markets. Light volume sets up opportunities for parties to whip prices around... Last week the bulls thought by Friday they had the market in hand... but all it was, was a bearish upthrust. Now this week, the bears are all beared up thinking the end-of-the-World is at hand. Basically, my fearless forecast is nothing gets resolved until next week when volume returns to the market. Watching the forecasting carnage on the board is quite laughable. There was no volume follow-through last week after the high volume Armageddon we experienced a couple weeks ago. So for me, it was time to close up shop and wait... If you like whipping around and have a small trading position, this is a great market to trade. But don't take a day off, go to lunch, or even the bathroom, because in minutes... your profits can go POOF... It sounds crazy, but the lower they go on this light volume the more bullish it gets...

[NAV]

Semi, I agree with you. Last few days, bears were getting squeezed based on the low volume argument. Now it's the bulls turn, based on the same low volume thesis. Scared bulls thesis was "Too many bears" to talk their positions. Probably the next thing would be "Too many bulls. I am going short" . Talk about trading on questionable information. And then all of a sudden some guru on the internet says, SPX 1450 support and the whole internet reverberates with the 1450 support thesis. Internet IMO has produced less independent thinking and more herd mentality. All the more better for those who do independent work. The boyz must be laughing their way to the bank.

Edited by NAV, 28 August 2007 - 11:12 AM.

[skyymaster]

Semi,

I agree with you. Last few days, bears were getting squeezed based on the low volume argument. Now it's the bulls turn, based on the same low volume thesis. Scared bulls thesis was "Too many bears" to talk their positions. Probably the next thing would be "Too many bulls. I am going short" . Talk about trading on questionable information.

And then all of a sudden some guru on the internet says, SPX 1450 support and the whole internet reverberates with the 1450 support thesis. Internet IMO has produced less independent thinking and more herd mentality. All the more better for those who do independent work. The boyz must be laughing their way to the bank.

Good points.

Nav, one my senior co-workers who is from old school and very good at Technical Analysis always pounds the table and tells me to stop listening to what is out there and to "DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH" !

[SemiBizz]

Well, if your forecast goes sour on you... you can always try and "jawbone" the market... keep looking around for those factors that support your losing position rather than re-examine the logic at the root of your original forecast... I see a lot of that. The low volume allows operators to make fools out of us all...

Edited by SemiBizz, 28 August 2007 - 12:22 PM.

[SemiBizz]

They keep saying... "You have to own tech" - You have to own it because they are SELLING it...



http://bigcharts.mar...&mocktick=1.gif



Now, we can say this is light volume too... so, which is it distribution within a larger accumulation, or accumulation within a bigger overall distribution? I don't have to decide... I just have to watch price action when volume returns. And that starts today on the fed news...

Edited by SemiBizz, 28 August 2007 - 12:46 PM.