5 replies to this topic

[NAV]

Yesterday's action was an extreme-to-extreme move, from a momentum perspective. After an extreme momentum selloff, if the bottom buliding fails to happen and we get one of this slingshot moves, it resolves down more than 80% of the time. The fact that the upmove yesterday failed to take out the prior swing highs and pushed the envelope on the hourly momentum indicators means, yesterday's move will likely be completely erased by EOD today. Add to that the bullish crowd closed the indices at the top tick of the day. With so much recognition of the next big move, the boyz know how to punish the bullish crowd and unload the pasengers. The only way this can be bullish is for the oscillators to remain in this extreme mode for the rest of the day, without generating any 30-min sell. But that's a 20% odds scenario. Pick your odds. P.S - I am flat currently.

Edited by NAV, 30 August 2007 - 07:31 AM.

[Trend-Signals]

Swing high...

http://www.stockchar...92375&r=945.png
http://www.stockchar...92643&r=541.png

[skyymaster]

Yesterday's action was an extreme-to-extreme move, from a momentum perspective. After an extreme momentum selloff, if the bottom buliding fails to happen and we get one of this slingshot moves, it resolves down more than 80% of the time. The fact that the upmove yesterday failed to take out the prior swing highs and pushed the envelope on the hourly momentum indicators means, yesterday's move will likely be completely erased by EOD today. Add to that the bullish crowd closed the indices at the top tick of the day. With so much recognition of the next big move, the boyz know how to punish the bullish crowd and unload the pasengers. The only way this can be bullish is for the oscillators to remain in this extreme mode for the rest of the day, without generating any 30-min sell. But that's a 20% odds scenario. Pick your odds.

P.S - I am flat currently.

It is funny how people were saying the volume was light on the downday and got super bullish on one up day and for crying out load volume was even lower yesterday. Don't know the technicals of volume like Semi, but seeing bullish bottom pickers out again does raise questions and caution flags.

[eminimee]

Bottom picking and top picking has been very profitable....just don't marry them.

[skyymaster]

Yes, for some. I prefer to wait to see some sort of extreme in greed and fear. Like I said, there is a major gap that needs to fill before new high on IXIC. I don't know just how they will do it but I will wait for breakout before going long. For bottom pick, I will wait for 2460-2467 on .ixic !

[NAV]

The 20% odds scenario is playing out. NDX busting higher, while SPX struggles. Something will give soon. Flat and watching.....