5 replies to this topic

[NAV]

http://nav-ta.blogsp...aders-case.html

Edited by NAV, 01 September 2007 - 10:48 AM.

[eminimee]

Elegantly and accurately put Nav.....

[NAV]

Elegantly and accurately put Nav.....

Thanks Tea. I am thinking wave C of an expanded/irregular flat (8/27 - 8/28 being wave A). Now i just need a 120-min sell.

Edited by NAV, 01 September 2007 - 11:26 AM.

[relax]

Interesting Nav As you point a gap up on tuesday could change things I think Europe and Asia will be positive now that the US is on vacation and can't ruin anything Therefore I am expecting a higher open on tuesday and retest of friday's highs , where going short seems like the obvious play but this game certainly had a crazy way the last week, so it seems to early to expect anything I still think the market will need to absorb the fact that benny will not lower rates no data supports a rate cut yet what is your view on seasonality - september and october being "scary" months - you think they will simply reverse this time and make late nov/december scary Enjoy the weekend

[NAV]

Interesting Nav

As you point a gap up on tuesday could change things

I think Europe and Asia will be positive now that the US is on vacation and can't ruin anything

Therefore I am expecting a higher open on tuesday and retest of friday's highs , where going short seems like the obvious play

but this game certainly had a crazy way the last week, so it seems to early to expect anything

I still think the market will need to absorb the fact that benny will not lower rates

no data supports a rate cut yet

what is your view on seasonality - september and october being "scary" months - you think they will simply reverse this time and make late nov/december scary

Enjoy the weekend

Rate cut has got nothing to do with the market direction. I can gaurantee you one thing. There's plenty of liquidty in this market, despite all the media talk about credit crunch blah...blah...blah. Everyone i meet and talk to, ask me one thing "Where do i invest my money. What's the best instrument/asset class ?". It's almost a desperation. That ranges from a typical middle class to the rich. Everyone out there is flush with funds. Benny will create hyperinflation, if he cuts rates here. I can understand the reduction in discount rate, which was a symbolic move to contain the panic. Reduction in funds rate is pure hyperinflating IMHO. Benny needs to rise the rates here. Otherwise, da_cheif will get his DOW 20000 with dollar index at 60.

As for seasonalilty, oh yeah, the "Crash call competition" should begin soon . Gurus and wannabe Gurus will start calling for crashes beginning Sep 1 all the way into end of Oct. There's a whole herd of suckers buying into these crash calls. If you get it right, you will be interviewed on CNBC, your subscribtion rates will zoom up, timer digest will start following you and you will be the Guru of the year. If you get it wrong, you will be forgiven, forgotten. It's a risk free call ! Remember all the crash calls during the fall, from the usual suspects, over the last 4 years - Have they worked ?. What a shame ? The same folks keep trying their luck every year. Oh well...

[relax]

greatly put just part of the game - there needs to be commercial side to it, which fools some and has others going for fame will be interesting how "www" plays out this time a retest of 1.370 would scare the [bleeeep] out of people but would just be a perfect setup for a yet again very profitable move for OPEX but just a plausible as that it, it would not surprise me to see them go crazy and head up toward 1.530 for www