16 replies to this topic

[Tor]

IF IT LOOKS LIKE A BEAR, SMELLS LIKE A BEAR AND DEVOURES YOU LIKE A BEAR, IT JUST MIGHT BE A BEAR! The big gauge for all traders and money accumulators is to be on the other side of the stupid money. That is a tough, harsh, and sometimes construed as a mean statement but it is reality. My grandfather has taught me from a very small boy to sell what everyone wants and buy what no one wants. This sounds simple but it is nearly impossible for the  herd instinct and good ole boy fraternity men to fathom. I recently spoke at the NAAIM Conference in late spring where I mentioned the danger signs of my wildly overbought Cook Cumulative Tick indicator. A young fellow walked out of the seminar, whom I doubt was much out of diapers in 1987. I really have nothing against youth it is just too bad it is wasted on the young. Youth many times is characterized by ego and this mans cup runneth over in that department. Later, I learned he was out in the hall later questioning all my virtues and personifying his wisdom, How can anybody question the strength of this bull market, it isnt going to correct, Cook is such a bear! Sorry, young fellow your future will not be in the financial business as walking on the railroad tracks toward the train, isnt very smart. The technicals of the market are flashing tape signs of ominous dimensions. First, the buy programs do not have the accompanying high plus tick in excess of +1200. Secondly, when they do appear the durations are shorter and persistence to maintain prices is just plain gone. Thirdly, radical down days show an elephant standing on a wet cardboard floor, when it gives way it is a heavy weight thundering down. Finally, the bulls are still chortling the famous epitaph, theirs, in words such as A BUYING OPPORTUNITY, a healthy correction, never the true words, let me out of this market, please! We all know the difference between a bear market in stocks and a correction in stocks. A bear market in stocks happens when I own stocks. A healthy correction happens when my neighbor owns stocks. The fact we have so many Long only funds is scary. Remember my grandfathers advice, if there is such demand for funds that only go long stocks, then where would grandfather tell you to be? I welcome volatility whereas the general public despises it. The general public doesnt even know the meaning because the brokerage firms have touted BUY AND HOLD for so long they even believe it. It is said that if a person says a lie enough to himself, he will someday believe it as a truth. Does that not still mean it is a lie? Dont ask the youth at the NAAIM conference, he only lives in 9 Commandments!

[ogm]

Is this an article from 2000 ? I see no similarities between it and the current market. What I see is dozens upon dozens oif bearish articles and doom prohets of all kinds predicting anything from another 10% down to the end of the world. Apparently this guy can quote his wise grandfather, but has no clue what it means.

Edited by ogm, 01 September 2007 - 01:54 PM.

[Tor]

Is this an article from 2000 ? I see no similarities between it and the current market.

What I see is dozens upon dozens oif bearish articles and doom prohets of all kinds predicting anything from another 10% down to the end of the world.

Apparently this guy can quote his wise grandfather, but has no clue what it means.

Yea, I dont share the view, its current. check out his site. he was right on in 2000 by the way, unlike the crowd. similar to today. i dont see anyone this gloomy.

a bipolar market IMO.

[ogm]

Nah, its not bipolar..

Here, take a look at this one for example....

Yes, you can partialy discount it on some hedge fund activities, but its still part of the same psychology, just different players.

Edited by ogm, 01 September 2007 - 02:20 PM.

[rkd80]

Cook is an amazing trader, but he has been bearish since start of '07. I am sure he makes money just fine, but his long term prognostics seem to be a tad off.

[Jnavin]

Cook is one of the best traders on the planet. Be careful.

[ogm]

Cook is one of the best traders on the planet.
Be careful.

The worst mistake you can ever make is rely on someone else's opinion.

[atlasshrugged]

Cook is one of the best traders on the planet.
Be careful.

The worst mistake you can ever make is rely on someone else's opinion.

i agree with that comment 100%....so why do we come to this website????

[NAV]

Apparently this guy can quote his wise grandfather, but has no clue what it means.

ogm,

From a parabola calling perma-bear during a trending phase, you have graduated to a bull-god in a trendless market. Clueless who ?? Dont' attack a great trader like Cook, unless you have no clue what you are talking about.

Edited by NAV, 02 September 2007 - 02:09 AM.

[ogm]

ogm,

From a parabola calling perma-bear during a trending phase, you have graduated to a bull-god in a trendless market. Clueless who ?? Dont' attack a great trader like Cook, unless you have no clue what you are talking about.

Geez, you people are sensitive.


We live and learn. Trading is a constantly evolving bussiness. What I do see is many people still stuck in the end of the world mentality. It is very deep rooted. Took me about a year of not trading at all to clear my head of that drivel. And I see many people making this same mistake again.

Here is a true story...

I was long many techs in 1999 and then nailed the top of the 2000 market. During that decline I was short every leg down, and long every countertrend rally. I was in a very good tune with the market emotions and direction.. I had a feel for every tick and every intraday move ....... I was long gold stocks right from the bottom. And I was long the first leg of the bull market ( thinking its another countertrend rally) ... that was a big mistake, because at some point I reversed in size which cost me a lot of money. About 20-25% of what I made over the previous 5 years. And that wasn't a small amount.

At that point I thought of myself as one of the greatest traders of all times, and I had to be right. And my outlook was heavily bearish. So I failed to recognize the trend. From 2004 to 2006 I was REVENGE trading.
You know what that means ... I was so great ! I couldn't be wrong ! Well, I was wrong. I caught a few moves here and there, but overall it was nothing like previous few years before it. I had to clear my head.

So I stopped trading when market broke out to new highs last year. And didn't trade any significant size untill the July top. At July top I decided it was time to short and I was pounding the table on Financials and retailers and nailed it. And now I feel like I'm getting my feel for the market back.

Every trader is wrong at some point. So if Cook was on a hot streak last few years, doesn't mean he'll be on it forever. Use your own head.. thats my point.



While indexes fell only 10% many individual stocks lost 40-50% off their highs. Many parabolas have been shattered. Many stocks look attractive.

As for indexes not even making a lower low despite all of this extreme fear we still have.. thats pretty bullish.

Edited by ogm, 02 September 2007 - 08:44 AM.