8 replies to this topic

[airedale88]

chart below has both a conservative projection based solely off the low closing price (green) and the normal method using print lows (for upside targets) or highs (for down side targets). the normal 10 wk price projection also suggests the reverse H and S will meet it's measured move. should these projections be met, and i have high confidence they will, i expect larger cycle higher projections will be generated.

added to es longs on the friday fld break and a few more this morning, now 100% long for es holdings.

IMHO getting long here for an intermediate or longer time frame trade is an opportunity last presented after the march 2003 low, the previous 4.5 yr cycle low.

[BearItch]

Aire -- It does not seeem then that you anticiapte a 21 day mioving average of the NYSE A/D to generate a buy signal on a retest of the averages. Is this correct? Also, si there a five week low due in here at some point this week?

Edited by BearItch, 04 September 2007 - 02:19 PM.

[arbman]

I just also noticed the same thing, here, an average of 1530 region is my target according to the 10 wk FLD by early Oct. The 5 wk cycle low in two weeks should be another entry, I expect a better pull back toward the 10 wk low, I hope it will not be like Oct 2006...

[airedale88]

Aire --

It does not seeem then that you anticiapte a 21 day mioving average of the NYSE A/D to generate a buy signal on a retest of the averages. Is this correct? Also, si there a five week low due in here at some point this week?

bearitch, when that a/d signal is given, i use it, BUT, there are other signals and uses for the envelopes.the cycles remain the most important tool i use.



right now, the upper 4% envelope on SPX is right around the nominal 10 wk cycle closing price projection on that chart i posted. i expect that envelope to be tagged.



http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&i=p23242174874&a=115482119&r=2114.png

Edited by airedale88, 04 September 2007 - 02:26 PM.

[pali]

Hi Airdale Thanks for the post, according to Hurst theory when would you expect this new price target to be reached ?If I count about 25 trading days from the FLD crossing I come up with Sept 21, so this would be the approximate date give or take 3 trading days. What do you think ? Pali

[airedale88]

Hi Airdale
Thanks for the post, according to Hurst theory when would you expect this new price target to be reached ?If I count about 25 trading days from the FLD crossing I come up with Sept 21, so this would be the approximate date give or take 3 trading days. What do you think ?
Pali

pali, this is a price projection only. the top for the current 10 wk cycle will occur based on the strength of the summed cyclic trend larger than the 10 wk cycle and can also occur at a higher price.

Edited by airedale88, 04 September 2007 - 02:53 PM.

[relax]

airedale three questions 1. Do you have any rule for when you are sure the 4 ½ year low is in - for instance a 5 per cent move from the bottom or new highs? - or you simply wait the entire 240 weeks 2. after the 4½ bottom which cycle do you consider to be the most important/which bottom tends to be most severe - 9 month, 18 month?? 3. what do you look for to decide whether or not the next 4 ½ year cycle will lead to a new low at some point, like in 2000, almost two years after the 1998 october low Thanks!

[airedale88]

relaxdk, 1. Do you have any rule for when you are sure the 4 ½ year low is in - for instance a 5 per cent move from the bottom or new highs? - or you simply wait the entire 240 weeks no single rule. the use of the complete methodology of hurst analysis determines that, especially a complete current cyclic analysis (CCA) derived from the formal phasing analysis (FPA). 2. after the 4½ bottom which cycle do you consider to be the most important/which bottom tends to be most severe - 9 month, 18 month?? that can vary. price motion is incredibly complex, and there will be times when any length cycle may not be visually evident. it is in the data though. the 78/.80 wk (18 month) is usually very important for the major trend. 3. what do you look for to decide whether or not the next 4 ½ year cycle will lead to a new low at some point, like in 2000, almost two years after the 1998 october low see my answer to question # 1.

Edited by airedale88, 04 September 2007 - 03:17 PM.

[Echo]

Hello Aire, Thanks for the update. Shorter cycles have been a bit ambiguous of late, especially with the possibility of a cycle straddle thrown in mid August. Using Aug 6 early am as the last major nest of lows, we are now about 21.6 trading days into this 5wk cycle. The last two 5wk cycles averaged 25.5 TD and the one before in April was a bit ambiguous as well. Interestingly, using your phasing, the last two 10wk cycles have been 51.5 TD both. That also would correspond to a 5wk cycle length of roughly 25.5-26 TD. All things being equal, I would expect some weakness over the next 3-4 TD as we enter the next expected 5wk cycle low. We might also get some resistance at the 50 smooth MA. Then hopefully off to your 10wk cycle projections! Good luck with your trades. Echo