3 replies to this topic

[Tor]

The Sell Side Indicator rose this month despite the market’s increased volatility. The recent update suggests that the notion that investors have been scared by the increased volatility is false. The model now stands at 64.5% versus last month’s 63.9%. The latest cutoff for a “sell” signal is 63.8%, so the indicator remains in “sell” territory. This model’s 12-month expected total return fell slightly to +4% from +5%. With the S&P 500’s dividend yield about 1.8%, that implies a 12-month price return of roughly +2.2%. (Keep in mind that this is not our official target expected return. Rather, this model is one of the 7 inputs to that overall expected return and target.)

[OEXCHAOS]

Well, I'd say that my work says sure. They aren't scared because they don't care either way. They aren't in the game. The SECTORS of sentiment that I watch, however, show some Bearishness among those few stalwarts individual investors still left and RAGING bearisness among hedge funds and not an insignificant number of traders. Today's poll, after weeks of HEAVY bearish commitments shows exactly one more long bull than short bear. And that's the BEST we've seen in weeks. I'm just sayin' Mark

[TechSkeptic]

That matches what I see anecdotally, most people I know aren't much interested in the stock market right now, paying casual attention at best. Most have a 401k but seldom touch it. Too many were burned in the tech bust of '00-'02.

[Data]

That matches what the 401K index tracked during the decline. Investors were moving more money into stocks. "Interestingly, participant discretionary contribution to equity (employee only contribution), which is another measurement of participant sentiment, actually increased by 0.7% to 69.7%."